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The National Bank told about the business activity index for April 2022

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Comment of Director of NBK Department of Monetary Policy Rustem Orazalin.

In April, there were signs of a recovery in business activity. We would provide a reminder that in March the economy was under pressure from a drastic change in the global geopolitical situation, Delovoy Kazakhstan reports.

Business activity index rose in April to 49.5 (48.2 in March), but it still remains in the negative zone. Growing business activity was reported only in the production sector: the index rose to 50.5 (50.0 in March), in other sectors it was below 50.

In the services sector and in the mining industry[1], business activity began to recover (49.6 and 49.9, respectively), in construction the decline persists for the fourth month in a row (44.5).

Delivery times have been increasing in all the sectors, and the construction industry has also faced significant declines in new orders and employment levels. In the production and mining industries, volume of inventories grew. 

In terms of regions, the lowest BAI value was recorded in the Regions of Almaty and Akmola (42.9 и 43.1 respectively), the highest – in the Regions of Mangystau and Northern Kazakhstan (56.4 and 55.6 respectively).  

According to enterprises, in April 2022, current business conditions got better but on the whole it still was negative: balance between positive and negative responses was (-)3.5 ((-)8.5 in March).        

In April 2022, negative responses prevailed for all factors in assessing the business conditions. However, a slight improvement was noted. Assessment of the tax burden and access to finance/credit remained almost unchanged compared to March, making (-)2.3 and (-)9.7. Other factors (demand, access to communications and business protection issues) tend to rebound.

Confidence of enterprises regarding future business conditions for the next 6 months has significantly brightened: assessment of future conditions was 7.3 (in March - (-)12.1). As a result, business climate index, which is an average assessment of current and future business conditions, has noticeably improved and made 1.8 ((-)10.3 in March).

In April 2022, the survey covered 465 enterprises: 42 engaged in mining industry, 136 in production, 72 in construction, 215 in services.

[1] In April 2022, mining industry was separately allocated  for the first time, therefore data series were recalculated.

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