“President Tokayev’s words match his actions. Other world leaders recognize this too” Ilgar Velizade
In 2025, it has been six years since Kassym-Jomart Tokayev assumed the presidency of Kazakhstan and three years since he launched the country’s political modernization program. Despite global crises, shifting regional dynamics, and internal upheavals, Kazakhstan has managed to maintain stability while carrying out wide-reaching reforms. Ilgar Velizade, an Azerbaijani political analyst and head of the South Caucasus Political Scientists Club, shared an external expert’s perspective on Tokayev’s presidency and the political approach that defines Kazakhstan’s current leadership.
– How would you characterize the period of Tokayev’s presidency? What major challenges marked it?
President Tokayev’s tenure began during a particularly difficult time — for Kazakhstan, the region, and the world. From 2019 to 2022, the country experienced a political transition, which was disrupted by the tragic events of the January 2022 unrest (Qantar). As a result of this crisis, Tokayev had to abandon his initial strategy of gradual reform in favor of more urgent and systemic political changes.
The reforms he implemented — both political and institutional — proved that his chosen path was effective. Despite internal and external challenges, Kazakhstan continues to move forward confidently while safeguarding its national interests.
On a regional level, cooperation among Central Asian countries has strengthened in recent years. New formats such as Consultative Meetings of regional leaders and the "Central Asia+" dialogues with the U.S., EU, China, and Russia were launched. These frameworks align with national development strategies across the region, including Kazakhstan.
As for global challenges, President Tokayev faced one crisis after another. Soon after taking office, the COVID-19 pandemic erupted, creating severe socioeconomic disruptions. Then came the January 2022 unrest. Before Kazakhstan could fully recover, the world was hit by the Russia–Ukraine war — which, in essence, is a confrontation between Russia and the West. This had ripple effects on Kazakhstan as well.
Today’s global trade tensions require Kazakhstan’s leadership to remain focused, responsive, and decisive. Kazakhstan has succeeded in staying out of global conflicts — a testament to Tokayev’s balanced and pragmatic approach. The political transition in Kazakhstan was far less destabilizing than it might have been under different leadership. Tokayev’s steady hand made the difference.
– In your opinion, what defines President Tokayev’s political style?
Like any leader of his stature, Tokayev has developed a distinct political style. His concept of a “Listening State” is a unique innovation — and it’s not just a slogan. It’s a real, functioning model that has been implemented through large-scale political reforms over the past few years and continues to evolve.
The strategic documents adopted at political forums under his leadership have begun transforming Kazakhstan’s society. Though the process is complex, the results are becoming tangible. The Kazakh state and public are now in a state of purposeful mobilization — they recognize the challenges, and coordinated responses are being formed. That, too, is part of Tokayev’s governance style: strategic, responsive, and reform-oriented.
– It’s been six years since Tokayev became President, and three years since political modernization began. Which reforms have been most decisive? What has changed in Kazakhstan?
Kazakhstan has been following a consistent and coherent political path that aligns with the region’s geopolitical realities as well as internal needs. This pragmatic alignment with the real world stands in contrast to the detached ideological approaches seen in some other countries — approaches that often lead to chaos and collapse.
Kazakhstan has instead adopted a balanced and complementary foreign policy, and that equilibrium has had a stabilizing effect on domestic politics.
Domestically, major reforms have reshaped Kazakhstan’s political system. The presidency, parliament, and constitution have all been revised. The roles of central and local authorities are being redefined — a clear signal that old models of governance are no longer adequate.
Kazakhstan is a large and culturally diverse country. The West, East, North, South, and Central regions all have their own distinct characteristics. Yet they are united by a shared history and common institutions. Managing such a country requires flexible approaches — such as direct elections of local governors and greater public involvement in decision-making. The government is making sincere efforts to understand what’s happening at the local level and use that understanding to shape national policy. This is the essence of Tokayev’s political modernization. The process is ongoing and far from perfect, but the direction is right.
– Is it fair to say that a new social contract is forming between the state and society?
A social contract is the foundation of state legitimacy. It must evolve in line with societal and political developments. Kazakhstan in the early 1990s, early 2000s, and today — these are three different phases of the same society, shaped by new generations and global trends.
The internet and modern communication are erasing borders and changing public expectations. Governments that fail to adapt become unresponsive and ineffective — something we partially witnessed during the January 2022 crisis.
President Tokayev took the side of the people. He showed that the government stands with the public, not just with political institutions. This demonstrated that Kazakhstan’s leadership can listen, see, and act — and that’s why the reforms succeeded.
Social change is ongoing. The President frequently emphasizes the need to stay flexible and respond to challenges proactively. Yes, problems remain — including corruption, bureaucracy, and the human factor — but a consistent and effective response to those problems is a sign of a healthy political system.
Overall, the positive dynamics in Kazakhstan outweigh the negative trends. President Tokayev encourages this by supporting forces that work for the public good. This support produces results. If it didn’t, we’d see public dissatisfaction and economic stagnation — but instead, Kazakhstan continues to progress.
– Kazakhstan has maintained its multi-vector foreign policy despite global polarization. What is President Tokayev’s role in this?
Kazakhstan prioritizes its own national interests — that’s key. It doesn’t bend to foreign pressures or power plays. President Tokayev, as a seasoned diplomat with years of experience at the UN, understands how to balance global influence while protecting domestic sovereignty.
This is reflected in real-world diplomacy. Kazakhstan does not yield to any one power — be it Russia, China, or the West — despite claims from so-called "pseudo-experts." When needed, Kazakhstan delivers firm and clear messages to external actors, but does so tactfully, without damaging diplomatic relations.
Kazakhstan faces multiple geopolitical pressures: Western sanctions on Russia, China–Russia competition in the region, and competing interests from Europe and regional powers in Central Asia. In this context, Kazakhstan must build balanced, flexible relations with all sides.
One example is the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, a key project partly owned by Russia. Despite Europe cutting energy ties with Russia, this pipeline still functions — thanks to Kazakh oil and Kazakhstan’s international reputation.
Another example: the Druzhba oil pipeline. It once carried Russian oil to Germany, but now transports Kazakh oil through Russian territory. Thanks to Kazakhstan’s diplomatic efforts, that flow continues uninterrupted.
Kazakhstan is firmly positioned on the regional and global map — but that position is constantly being tested. The daily work of Kazakhstan’s foreign ministry, embassies, economic and transport institutions is what holds it all together. All of it is coordinated by President Tokayev, who is directly involved in shaping foreign policy decisions.
– What priorities do you think Tokayev will pursue in the second half of his term?
The hallmark of Tokayev’s presidency is continuity. Whatever the new policy agenda may be, it will build on the foundation of the past six years. Tokayev doesn’t abandon past commitments — his actions consistently reflect his words.
When he first came to power, he introduced the “Listening State” concept. That idea has survived crises and remains relevant. It shows that Tokayev’s vision is not shaped by political convenience but guided by long-term strategic thinking.
This consistency ensures predictability — both at home and abroad. It allows international partners to build stable, trusting relationships with Kazakhstan.
President Tokayev has proven that his word can be trusted. That matters — not just for citizens, but for the global community.
In the coming years, he is expected to continue reinforcing the “Listening State,” advance economic and political reforms, and ensure Kazakhstan’s sovereignty and sustainability on the world stage — as he has done throughout his political career.
