The main test still lies ahead. Glenn Agung Hole, Professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway, believes that the real effectiveness of Kazakhstan’s new institutional model will become clear only after it has operated in practice for several years, DKNews.kz reports.
The expert made the remarks ahead of the upcoming elections to the Kurultai. Voting is scheduled for August 23, 2026, and will take place under the new constitutional model featuring a unicameral supreme representative body.
Hole Highlights Kazakhstan’s Focus on Strong Institutions
According to Glenn Agung Hole, one of the defining features of the ongoing transformation is the emphasis placed on state institutions.
“My impression is that Kazakhstan is doing many of the things that may have been lost in the Western world, especially in Europe. You place great emphasis on institutions and strive to build strong institutions. I think the upcoming elections are also laying the foundation for further development,” Hole said.
The expert links the stability of the political system not only to formal changes, but also to how effectively the new institutions will be able to perform their functions once they are fully operational.
This point takes on particular significance in the context of Kazakhstan’s transition from the former bicameral Parliament to the Kurultai. The new Constitution defines the Kurultai as the supreme representative body exercising legislative power.
Vice President Becomes Part of the New Power Structure
Speaking about the political transformation, Hole also drew attention to changes in the architecture of presidential power.
“I believe their significance lies in the fact that presidential powers are being divided between two roles and, hopefully, more opportunities are being created for democratic participation by citizens,” he said.
The expert made this assessment in the context of the introduction of the office of Vice President under the new Constitution. Under the Basic Law, the Vice President is appointed by the President with the consent of the Kurultai, while the specific powers of the office are determined by the Head of State. If the President’s powers are terminated early, the Vice President is first in the constitutionally established line of succession to assume presidential powers.
Therefore, Hole’s reference to the “division of powers” represents his expert interpretation of the new model. The Constitution itself does not use this wording directly.
The Results Will Be Seen in One, Two or Three Years
The professor offered his most cautious assessment when discussing the prospects of the unicameral Kurultai.
Hole believes the transition could help strengthen state institutions. At the same time, he argues that the reform should be judged not by the moment it is launched, but by how the new system performs in practice.
“I think this transition and redistribution of powers could also contribute to strengthening state institutions and, hopefully, democracy in the long term. But one thing is to make the decision to undertake such a transition and implement it, and quite another is how everything will work in practice one, two or three years from now. That is when we will see how successful these transformations have been,” the expert concluded.
This qualification effectively captures the central point of the Norwegian professor’s assessment. The constitutional framework has already been established; the next stage is how it functions in practice.
The new Constitution entered into force on July 1, 2026. The first convocation of the Kurultai will be formed following the August 23 elections.
Earlier, we wrote about how the new Constitution reshaped Kazakhstan’s political architecture and formalized the transition to the Kurultai.
