The Caspian Sea has lost more than 16,000 square kilometres of its surface area. Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev warned that the shrinking sea now threatens regional economies, transport infrastructure and the livelihoods of millions of people, DKNews.kz reports.
Speaking at the first Caspian Environmental Summit in Awaza, Turkmenistan, on October 9, 2026, Tokayev called for urgent international action, including joint scientific research, AI-powered environmental monitoring and new financing mechanisms to protect the Caspian ecosystem.
The summit brought together the leaders of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Iran and Russia.
The Caspian Sea Has Lost More Than 16,000 Square Kilometres
President Tokayev thanked Turkmenistan's President Serdar Berdimuhamedov for initiating the summit, describing the meeting as historic because of the Caspian Sea's strategic importance to the entire region.
He warned that the environmental crisis was increasingly becoming an economic problem with consequences extending far beyond the five Caspian littoral states.
«The Caspian Sea is a unique natural treasure, a source of prosperity for millions of people, and a key transport and energy hub for the entire Eurasian continent. Preserving its ecosystem therefore requires particular attention, above all from our states. I agree with President of Iran Masoud Pezeshkian that this is no longer merely an environmental crisis but in essence, an economic crisis with potentially dangerous consequences. If urgent and decisive action is not taken now, the environmental situation will deteriorate rapidly, causing irreparable damage not only to the peoples of the Caspian littoral states but also to the international community as a whole. Between 2000 and 2025, the total area of the Caspian Sea shrank by more than 16,000 square kilometres. In some areas, the shoreline has receded by tens of kilometres. Reduced inflows, rising temperatures and human-induced pressures are having an extremely adverse, indeed destructive, impact on the sea’s fragile natural system and biodiversity. The fate of the Caspian seal is a particular cause for concern: its population has declined from one million to 270,000 over the past century», Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said.
The figures illustrate the scale of the challenge. As water levels fall, coastlines retreat, habitats change and infrastructure built around the sea becomes increasingly vulnerable.
For Kazakhstan, the problem has implications for its Caspian ports, maritime transport, fishing industry and coastal settlements.
Climate Change Could Put 2.5 Million People at Risk
Tokayev linked the Caspian Sea's declining water levels to wider climate changes affecting Central Asia and neighbouring regions.
According to projections cited by the President, temperatures in some parts of the region could rise by as much as 5°C by the end of the century.
«This will accelerate glacier melt, exacerbate water shortages and droughts, and lead to land degradation. According to the World Bank, by 2050, nearly 2.5 million people in the region could face the risk of internal displacement due to climate-related factors. The shrinking sea poses serious threats to shipping and port infrastructure, fisheries, energy, industry and the sustainable development of coastal communities. These interconnected challenges could lead to a large-scale environmental catastrophe. Kazakhstan understands the grave consequences of such a scenario. The tragedy of the Aral Sea remains a stark reminder of the devastating results of irresponsible management of natural resources. We must under no circumstances allow such a situation to recur. Saving the Caspian Sea, once rightly described as ‘great’ and ‘wise’, is not merely our responsibility, it is a matter of honor for the statesmen of our time. This is about the legacy we will leave to future generations. The decisions we make today will largely determine the Caspian Sea that our children and grandchildren will inherit», the Head of State stated.
The economic implications are substantial. Falling water levels could complicate shipping, increase pressure on coastal infrastructure and affect businesses dependent on the sea.
The reference to the Aral Sea was particularly significant. Its environmental collapse remains one of Central Asia's most serious examples of the consequences of unsustainable water management.
Kazakhstan Links Economic Growth With Environmental Protection
The President also discussed Kazakhstan's domestic environmental policy, emphasizing that economic development and ecosystem protection should reinforce each other.
He highlighted the role of environmental responsibility in the country's new Constitution and the nationwide Taza Qazaqstan initiative.
«We believe it is essential to promote respect for nature and its intrinsic value. It is no coincidence that these principles are reflected in our new Constitution, which obliges all citizens to treat nature and its resources with care and makes the state responsible for protecting the environment in ways that safeguard human life and health. Our nationwide Taza Qazaqstan initiative has brought together nearly one million volunteers and become an effective driver of a new environmental culture. We are guided by what may seem a simple but fundamental principle: economic development and environmental protection are not contradictory; on the contrary, they complement one another», the President noted.
The involvement of nearly one million volunteers demonstrates the scale of Kazakhstan's environmental initiatives, which extend from local clean-up campaigns to broader conservation efforts.
Northern Aral Sea Recovery Offers Hope for the Caspian
Tokayev presented Kazakhstan's experience in restoring damaged ecosystems as evidence that environmental degradation can be reversed through sustained intervention.
According to the President, the area of the Northern Aral Sea has increased by 36%, contributing to improved water quality and the recovery of fish populations.
«We have managed to increase the area of the Northern Aral Sea by 36%. As a result, water quality has improved, fish stocks have recovered, and economic life in the surrounding areas is gradually being revitalized. Biodiversity conservation is a key priority of our environmental policy. Consistent efforts have helped restore saiga populations. Snow leopard populations are being sustained, and rare animal species are returning to their natural habitats. We believe this positive experience can also be applied to preserving the unique ecosystem of the Caspian Sea. We are implementing a special program to reintroduce the Turanian tiger. In this regard, I would like to express my gratitude to the Government of the Russian Federation and personally to President Vladimir Putin for providing several Amur tigers, a unique species that is now adapting successfully to our environment», Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized.
The President's message was that conservation requires practical projects supported by science, environmental institutions and long-term cooperation.
Kazakhstan considers its experience with the Northern Aral Sea relevant to future efforts to protect the Caspian, although the two water bodies face different environmental conditions.
Five Caspian Countries Need a Coordinated Response
Tokayev acknowledged that an international framework for protecting the Caspian Sea already exists but argued that current measures are insufficient.
He highlighted the Tehran Convention, an international agreement on protecting the Caspian marine environment, as an important foundation for cooperation.
«The Tehran Convention is of particular importance. This year marks the 20th anniversary of its entry into force. The United Nations Environment Programme is also making a significant contribution to environmental protection efforts. Kazakhstan supports Azerbaijan’s proposal to establish an Intergovernmental Commission on the Decline of the Caspian Sea Water Level at the level of deputy prime ministers. The Caspian littoral states have endorsed Kazakhstan’s proposal to develop an Interstate Program for the Conservation of the Caspian Sea’s Water Resources. We highly appreciate the efforts of all our international partners and, of course, our friends around the Caspian Sea – the littoral states. Nevertheless, the measures taken so far remain insufficient. The time has therefore come to move towards coordinated action to mitigate the effects of the declining water level and help our economies and ecosystems adapt to the changes underway», the Head of State said.
The proposed intergovernmental commission would provide a higher-level mechanism for coordinating responses to declining water levels.
Kazakhstan's proposed interstate program, meanwhile, is intended to establish a shared approach to conserving Caspian water resources.
Kazakhstan Proposes Joint Research and AI Monitoring
A major part of Tokayev's address focused on improving scientific cooperation and introducing digital technologies to monitor changes in the Caspian ecosystem.
The President outlined several practical priorities:
- Combining scientific data and environmental observations from Caspian countries;
- Developing common scenarios for adaptation to declining water levels;
- Creating a shared digital platform for environmental monitoring;
- Using satellite technologies, artificial intelligence and forecasting systems;
- Improving cooperation between scientists, government agencies and international organizations.
Kazakhstan established the Research Institute for the Caspian Sea in 2024. Tokayev proposed using its capabilities together with research institutions in neighbouring countries.
«The Caspian littoral states possess a substantial body of data, scientific research and observations. To maximize their effectiveness, however, these resources must operate as part of an integrated system. In 2024, Kazakhstan established the Research Institute for the Caspian Sea. Its capabilities could be harnessed jointly with research centres across all Caspian littoral states to conduct comprehensive studies and develop common adaptation scenarios», the President of Kazakhstan noted.
A coordinated research system would allow participating countries to compare observations, identify shared risks and develop adaptation measures using consistent information.
Artificial Intelligence Could Help Track the Caspian Crisis
Tokayev proposed developing a joint digital platform capable of processing environmental information from across the Caspian region.
The system could integrate data on shoreline movements, river inflows, pollution, biodiversity and water resources.
«We propose exploring the possibility of establishing a shared digital platform to process and analyze data on the state of water resources, changes in the shoreline, biodiversity, pollution, river flows and other key parameters. Satellite technologies, artificial intelligence and advanced forecasting systems would enable real-time monitoring and help identify and address environmental risks in a timely manner. Such a platform could serve as a common digital foundation for the work of our scientists, relevant government agencies and international organizations», Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said.
The proposal would introduce AI into regional environmental management rather than limit its use to individual national projects.
For scientists and government agencies, access to shared information could improve the speed and consistency of environmental assessments.
However, the platform remains a proposal. The summit address did not specify its cost, launch date or technical implementation arrangements.
Caspian Seals Face a Growing Threat
The decline in the Caspian seal population was another central issue.
According to figures cited by Tokayev, the population has fallen from approximately one million to 270,000 over the past century.
The President called for stronger cooperation against poaching, illegal fishing and the illicit trade in biological resources.
«The experience of the Northern Aral Sea demonstrates that combining engineering solutions with a science-based, nature-oriented approach can effectively address water management and environmental challenges, enhance the resilience of coastal areas and mitigate the consequences of climate change. Greater attention should also be paid to combating illegal fishing, poaching and the illicit trade in biological resources. This problem can only be resolved through collective efforts. We need to intensify information-sharing between law enforcement and environmental protection agencies, conduct joint operations and make use of digital monitoring tools. Kazakhstan is ready to contribute to this common effort by drawing on the capabilities of the state nature reserve established to protect the Caspian seal and its natural habitat. Preserving ecological corridors also deserves particular attention, as this would minimize human-induced impacts on areas that are crucial to the seals’ life cycle. After all, the Caspian Sea is inconceivable without its seal population. Kazakhstan is establishing an International Biodiversity Conservation Fund to bring together the global community’s efforts to preserve our shared natural heritage. One of the Fund’s key areas of activity will be the protection of rare species and the Caspian Sea’s unique ecosystems. I invite all interested parties to take an active part in the Fund’s work, with a focus on implementing concrete joint projects», the Head of State said.
The proposed International Biodiversity Conservation Fund would aim to attract international participation in projects protecting rare species and vulnerable ecosystems.
Tokayev also highlighted the importance of preserving ecological corridors, which allow wildlife to move between habitats with less human interference.
For the Caspian seal, protecting breeding areas and maintaining suitable habitats are particularly important as the sea's coastline changes.
Kazakhstan Calls for Climate Financing to Restore Ecosystems
Another major proposal concerned the financing of environmental restoration.
Tokayev argued that protecting the Caspian requires attention not only to the sea but also to the rivers and wetlands that sustain its ecosystem.
«These projects should cover both the sea itself and the river basins that feed into it. We must restore water flows, river deltas and wetlands, and rehabilitate hydraulic infrastructure. Grants, concessional lending and other channels of climate finance can and should support these efforts», the President of Kazakhstan said.
The proposed approach would combine ecosystem restoration with infrastructure investment.
Climate finance could help participating countries implement projects that might otherwise be difficult to fund through national budgets alone.
However, no specific investment package or financing commitments were detailed in the President's address.
Tokayev Calls for a UN-Led International Water Organization
The President also raised the need to strengthen international institutions responsible for water management.
He emphasized the importance of completing the establishment of a permanent Secretariat for the Tehran Convention.
Such a body would help coordinate decisions and monitor the implementation of agreements between Caspian countries.
«We need an effective mechanism to ensure continuity in decision-making, coordinate activities and monitor the implementation of all agreements reached at the highest level. Kazakhstan will continue its efforts to establish an International Water Organization under the auspices of the United Nations. Our shared objective is to improve the effectiveness of global water governance while giving priority attention to the environmental state of the Caspian Sea. Water security must be given its rightful place on the international agenda, alongside food, energy and climate security», Kassym-Jomart Tokayev stated.
Kazakhstan's initiative to create an International Water Organization extends beyond the Caspian region.
The proposed institution would seek to improve international coordination on water resources, an issue closely connected to agriculture, energy production, economic development and climate adaptation.
What the Caspian Summit Means for Kazakhstan
The summit highlighted how environmental changes in the Caspian Sea are becoming increasingly important for Kazakhstan's economic and infrastructure planning.
The country's Caspian coastline supports port operations, maritime connections and industries whose development depends on access to the sea.
Tokayev's proposals focused on establishing mechanisms through which the five littoral states could monitor environmental changes, coordinate conservation measures and finance adaptation projects.
In his concluding remarks, the President emphasized that the Caspian Sea must be treated as a shared ecosystem rather than a collection of separate national territories.
«All the necessary conditions for productive cooperation are in place: political dialogue, an international legal framework, specialized institutions and considerable scientific expertise. I hope that, through our joint efforts, we will preserve the Caspian Sea as a source of life, prosperity and a shared future for our peoples», the Head of State concluded.
The summit also featured addresses by Turkmenistan's President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian and Russia's President Vladimir Putin.
Earlier, we also reported on Tokayev's proposals to address water shortages, air pollution and biodiversity loss during the Regional Environmental Summit in Astana, where protection of the Aral and Caspian Seas was among the major priorities.
