In August, the tenge weakened by 1.6%, reaching 481.61 tenge per US dollar. The main factors influencing the tenge's dynamics include market participants' expectations, tax payments, global market conditions, and geopolitical developments. The National Bank of Kazakhstan continues to adhere to a flexible exchange rate regime, aiming to avoid imbalances and preserve foreign exchange reserves, DKnews.kz reports.
Trading Volume and Market Operations
The average daily trading volume on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) increased to 210 million US dollars, compared to 170 million US dollars in the previous month. The total trading volume on the exchange in August reached 4.4 billion US dollars, indicating increased activity in the foreign exchange market.
Currency Sales from the National Fund
To provide transfers to the republican budget, 546 million US dollars were sold from the National Fund in August. The share of these sales accounted for 12% of the total trading volume, not exceeding 26 million US dollars per day. When conducting operations with currency from the National Fund, the National Bank of Kazakhstan adheres to the principle of market neutrality, conducting regular and even sales. This approach helps minimize the impact of such operations on the foreign exchange market and maintain stability.
Supporting the Foreign Currency Share of UAPF Pension Assets
To maintain the foreign currency share of the Unified Accumulative Pension Fund (UAPF) at 30%, the National Bank continued purchasing foreign currency on the exchange market. The total amount of these purchases in August amounted to 223 million US dollars, which is approximately 5% of the total market volume. This measure aims to diversify assets and maintain the stability of the pension system.
Foreign Currency Sales from Foreign Exchange Reserves
As part of the government's decision to purchase shares in Kazatomprom JSC, the National Bank began converting part of the National Fund's foreign currency assets into foreign exchange reserves in July. To mirror this operation on the foreign exchange market, even sales of the acquired volume have been carried out since mid-July. In August, the volume of sales from foreign exchange reserves amounted to 241.5 million US dollars. It is expected that the sale of currency from these reserves in September will range between 230 and 250 million US dollars.
September Forecasts
According to preliminary forecasts, the National Bank plans to sell between 900 million and 1 billion US dollars from the National Fund in September. Additionally, the purchase of foreign currency to support the foreign currency share of UAPF pension assets is expected to range from 450 to 550 million US dollars.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan continues to uphold the principles of transparency and market neutrality by disclosing full information about its operations on the foreign exchange market. In the short term, the dynamics of the tenge will depend on internal and external factors, including global economic conditions and geopolitical changes. Maintaining stability in the foreign exchange market remains a key task for the National Bank, contributing to the preservation of confidence in the national currency and the financial system of the country.
