Independent industrial expert Maksim Khudalov believes that a possible accident at the Ust-Kamenogorsk Titanium and Magnesium Plant (UKTMP) could lead to a rise in titanium prices on the global market and undermine buyers' trust in Kazakhstani products.
Let us recall that, according to the Department for Emergency Situations of the East Kazakhstan Region, at 18:21 on May 19, a signal was received regarding a possible emission of an unknown gas.
On the same day, residents of Ust-Kamenogorsk began posting messages on social media about a supposed accident at UKTMP. A user named Artur Abdulkadyrov posted a video showing yellow smoke coming from the plant's territory.
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City maslikhat deputy Mikhail Baiteryakov posted a video showing heavy smoke on the morning of May 20 in the Sogra district, where UKTMP is located.
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An emergency response headquarters was established in the region.
According to “Kazinform,” citing plant representatives, unscheduled cleaning of the condensation system of one of the chlorination units was being conducted. During the operation, the protective lining (garnisage) collapsed, and the gas duct was blocked.
Following this, residents reported seeing a suspicious yellow-colored cloud. However, the East Kazakhstan Regional Communications Service assured that all necessary measurements had been taken and that there was no threat to human life:
“Research was conducted for the presence of 18 harmful substances, including chlorine, hydrogen chloride, and formaldehyde. As of 21:44, no exceedances for chlorine or other substances were detected. However, sampling continues, as weather conditions and the time gap between the emission and the arrival of experts could have influenced the results.”
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Despite these calming statements, a crisis headquarters was established in the region, and regional governor Nurymbet Saktaganov abruptly returned from China. The next day, Minister of Ecology Yerlan Nysanbayev arrived in the East Kazakhstan Region. During his visit, he instructed to “assess the legality of the plant's actions in connection with the violation of environmental standards, as well as to conduct a legal assessment of the incident.” The Minister demanded that all measures be taken, including possible prosecution of responsible officials, and to ensure that such “incidents” do not occur in the future.
It should be noted that this is not the first accident at this facility. Similar cases were recorded earlier, for example, in December 2021. As Maksim Khudalov reminds us, at that time, “the release of pollutants led to fines exceeding 4.6 million tenge.” In November 2024, school classes in the city were canceled due to high levels of emissions.
According to the expert, “the initial analysis of the situation points to a fundamental cause — insufficient attention to the modernization of production infrastructure. The lack of a transparent investment program and systematic renewal of critically important equipment inevitably leads to the degradation of production systems.”
Canva
A possible suspension of UKTMP’s operations could deliver a painful blow to the global titanium market and the aerospace industry.
Moreover, according to Khudalov, “the titanium market is characterized by high concentration and a lack of spare reserve capacity that could promptly compensate for the lost volumes.”
This situation contributes to rising prices. The key buyers of this metal are Boeing and Airbus. They are increasing production, and analysts from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) had already forecast growth in demand for titanium in global markets.
At the same time, the main supplier of raw material is Russia. However, under sanctions, the Russian titanium producer VSMPO-AVISMA is facing difficulties in supply, which further drives up prices.
As of today, the Ust-Kamenogorsk plant provides 11% of global titanium production and 18% of production in the aerospace segment. Rising prices on the market are beneficial for it as a producer. However, if the plant halts its supply, it will miss a favorable moment to make profits.
DBK
Furthermore, according to observers' forecasts, the accident at UKTMP will soon lead to a further increase in the price of titanium sponge and ingots by at least 15–20%. After all, replacing titanium supplies from Kazakhstan in the near future will simply be impossible.
Of course, the plant will eventually resume its operations — the question is when and what the consequences will be. In any case, such recurring incidents undermine the trust of buyers and will force them to look for alternatives — possibly by easing cooperation conditions with our competitors from abroad. Not to mention that the damage done to the health of Ust-Kamenogorsk residents cannot be compensated with money.
