The global airline industry is on track for stronger profitability in 2025, even as geopolitical instability, economic uncertainty, and supply chain challenges continue to impact operations. According to the latest forecast from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the sector is showing solid resilience and steady demand, DKnews.kz reports.
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“This year will be better than 2024, even if it falls short of earlier expectations. Declining fuel prices and consistent travel demand are key to this modest but meaningful growth,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh.
Key Metrics for 2025
| Indicator | 2025 Forecast | Change vs. 2024 | Previous Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net profit | $36 billion | +$3.6 billion | $36.6 billion |
| Net margin | 3.7% | +0.3 pts | 3.6% |
| Return on invested capital | 6.7% | +0.1 pts | ~6.7% |
| Total revenue | $979 billion | +1.3% | $1 trillion |
| Operating profit | $66 billion | +$4.1 billion | $67.5 billion |
| Total expenses | $913 billion | +1.0% | $940 billion |
| Total passengers | 4.99 billion | +4% | 5.22 billion |
| Cargo volume | 69 million tonnes | +0.6% | 72.5 million t |
Passenger Travel: Record Highs, Lower Fares
Passenger revenues are expected to hit an all-time high of $693 billion in 2025, with an additional $144 billion from ancillary services.
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As competition intensifies and fuel prices drop, yields will decline by 4%. The average return ticket (in real 2024 dollars) is projected at just $374, 40% cheaper than in 2014.
IATA April 2025 Survey Highlights:
- 40% expect to fly more over the next 12 months
- 47% plan to spend more on travel
- 68% of business travelers said trade tensions will lead to more client visits
Air Cargo: Modest Growth Ahead
Amid weaker global GDP and rising protectionism, cargo revenues are set to fall to $142 billion (–4.7%). Volume growth is slowing to 0.7%, down sharply from 11.3% in 2024.
Still, year-over-year demand remained stable in April 2025, rising 5.8%.
Jet Fuel: A Critical Profit Driver
Jet fuel prices are expected to average $86 per barrel this year (vs. $99 in 2024), reducing total fuel costs to $236 billion, down $25 billion from the previous year.
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Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) output will double to 2 million tonnes — just 0.7% of global consumption. However, SAF remains costly, priced 4.2 times higher than traditional kerosene.
Fleet Challenges: Delays and Grounded Aircraft
There are over 17,000 aircraft on order globally — a backlog that equates to 14 years of delivery wait time. Just 1,692 aircraft are expected to be delivered in 2025, 26% below previous forecasts.
More than 1,100 aircraft under 10 years old are grounded — 70% due to PW1000G engine issues.
Aging fleets, supply chain disruptions, and limited capacity are weighing heavily on operational efficiency.
Regional Outlook: Who's Leading, Who’s Lagging?
| Region | 2025 Net Profit | Net Margin | Profit per Passenger | Demand (RPK) | Capacity (ASK) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $12.7 billion | 4.0% | $11.1 | +0.4% | +1.3% |
| Europe | $11.3 billion | 4.3% | $8.9 | +6.0% | +5.9% |
| Asia-Pacific | $4.9 billion | 1.9% | $2.6 | +9.0% | +6.9% |
| Latin America | $1.1 billion | 2.4% | $3.4 | +5.8% | +7.8% |
| Middle East | $6.2 billion | 8.7% | $27.2 | +6.4% | +4.6% |
| Africa | $0.2 billion | 1.1% | $1.3 | +8.0% | +7.3% |
Getty ImagesRisks Ahead: From Oil to Geopolitics
Top risks for the industry include:
- Ongoing or escalating military conflicts
- New trade barriers and tariffs
- Breakdown of international aviation standards
- Volatile oil prices and supply shocks
The Passenger Perspective
A global survey conducted by IATA in April 2025 (6,500 travelers from 14 countries) shows strong consumer confidence:
- 97% were satisfied with their last flight
- 89% believe air travel improves their quality of life
- 88% worry about the future affordability of flying
- 81% trust the industry’s goal to reach net-zero by 2050
“That $36 billion in profit equals just $7.20 per passenger per flight. That’s a razor-thin margin,” emphasized Willie Walsh.
Climate Goals and the Road to Net Zero
The industry remains committed to reaching net-zero CO₂ emissions by 2050, but with SAF supply still limited and expensive, progress will be slow without systemic change.
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Airlines are projected to spend $1 billion on CORSIA-related carbon credits in 2025. So far, Guyana is the only country issuing certified credits aligned with CORSIA standards.
2025 is shaping up to be a year of fragile progress. While financial indicators are improving, the industry's resilience depends heavily on collaboration — between governments, manufacturers, and carriers — to ease regulatory pressure, boost SAF production, and solve supply chain bottlenecks.
“Airlines have shown remarkable adaptability,” Walsh concluded. “But a stable, sustainable future will require a united front and urgent solutions to the issues still looming on the horizon.”
