The National Bank has once again kept the base rate unchanged at 18.0%. The decision was made by the Monetary Policy Committee on November 28, 2025. The interest rate corridor also remained the same - plus/minus 1 percentage point, DKNews.kz reports.
Why does this matter? The base rate is the key benchmark for the cost of money in the economy. It shapes interest rates on loans, deposits, mortgages and influences investment sentiment. When the National Bank leaves it unchanged, it essentially signals to the market: the situation is difficult, inflation is high, and it’s too early to relax.
Let’s break down what stands behind the regulator’s decision and how it may affect the daily lives of ordinary people.
Inflation Is Slowing But Still Too High
In October, annual inflation reached 12.6%, slightly lower than in September (12.9%). But the figure alone doesn’t tell the full story - it’s important to understand what exactly is becoming more expensive:
- food - 13.5%
- non-food goods - 11%
- services - 12.9%, though the slowdown is largely due to administrative reductions in utilities tariffs
Overall inflation remains high, and this is the main risk - especially amid persistent consumer demand that has been outstripping supply for a long time.
The effects of tariff reforms and the liberalization of the fuel market are also still being felt. When gasoline and diesel prices rise, everything else becomes more expensive too.
What Is Driving Prices Up the Most
The main factor is food. Several commodity markets continue to experience imbalances: demand remains steadily high, while supply is unable to keep up.
Other reasons include:
- rising import prices
- increasing business costs
- higher fuel prices
- more expensive pharmaceuticals
Even the monthly inflation rate - 0.5% - may seem moderate, but core inflation remains elevated at 1% per month, equivalent to 12.2% annually.
A major concern: prices for 80% of goods and services are rising faster than the 5% inflation target. This indicates broad-based and persistent inflationary pressure.
Inflation Expectations Are Rising as Well
Inflation expectations are one of the most powerful psychological forces in the economy. When people believe prices will keep rising, they tend to behave in ways that accelerate inflation further.
In October, expectations rose to 13.6%. Long-term expectations climbed to 14.3%.
This complicates efforts to reduce inflation, making prices more sensitive to any increases in costs.
The Global Environment Also Offers Little Relief
- global food prices remain high
- inflation in Russia exceeds its target more than twofold
- the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish tone
- the ECB is also in no rush to ease monetary policy
In such conditions, it is difficult for the National Bank to cut rates - the external environment requires caution.
Updated National Bank Forecasts
Brent oil - 60 USD per barrel under the baseline scenario.
Inflation forecasts:
- 2025 - 12.0–13.0%
- 2026 - 9.5–12.5%
- 2027 - 5.5–7.5%
The wide ranges reflect high uncertainty - tax reform, quasi-fiscal spending and consumer reaction to VAT changes.
Economic Growth: Where Things Stand
Forecasts have been updated in different directions:
- 2025 - upgraded to 6.0–6.5%. Rapid growth in oil production, strong investment activity and elevated demand are pushing the economy upward.
- 2026 - downgraded to 3.5–4.5%. Reasons include a high base from the previous year, the tax-budget reform and fiscal consolidation.
- 2027 - 4.0–5.0%. Growth will be driven by expanding investment, moderate consumption and increased production.
The Main Risk: The Gap Between Demand and Supply
The economy is growing quickly, but supply is failing to catch up. This fuels inflation.
Large quasi-budgetary spending also contributes: through the Baiterek holding alone, 8 trillion tenge is set to be allocated in 2026 - equivalent to 4.4% of GDP.
This money stimulates the economy but also amplifies inflationary pressure.
What the Government Is Doing
The Government, the National Bank and the Agency are implementing the Joint Action Program for 2026–2028.
The program focuses on:
- narrowing the gap between demand and supply
- improving the efficiency of budget spending
- strengthening prudential measures for the financial sector
- increasing real household incomes
- reducing and stabilizing inflation
This is essentially a package of measures aimed at cooling down the economy so that it grows not in an overheated state but sustainably.
Why the Base Rate Will Not Be Lowered at Least Until Mid-2026
The National Bank states clearly: there are no conditions for reducing the rate.
Key reasons:
- high inflation expectations
- elevated core inflation
- tariff and tax reforms
- risks of renewed price acceleration
If inflation does not slow down convincingly, further tightening of monetary policy is possible.
What This Means for the Public
- loans will remain expensive
- deposits will continue offering high returns
- mortgages are unlikely to become cheaper
- it will remain difficult for businesses to access cheap financing
But the overall goal is clear - to halt price growth and bring the economy onto a stable trajectory in the coming years.
When to Expect the Next Decision
- December 3, 2025 - the National Bank will publish the full monetary policy report
- January 23, 2026 at 12:00 - the next base rate decision will be announced
