Kazakhstan’s business sector entered 2026 with cautious optimism. In January, business activity improved and returned to positive territory, with the Business Activity Index reaching 50.8, up from 49.9 in December 2025. Crossing the 50-point threshold signals a shift from contraction to expansion, suggesting that economic momentum is gradually recovering, DKNews.kz reports.
According to Rustem Orazalin, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the January figures point to an uneven but overall positive trend across the economy.
Services lead the recovery
The services sector became the main driver of improvement. In January, the index for services moved firmly into growth territory, rising to 52.1 from 49.0 in December. This reflects a revival in consumer demand, increased activity among businesses, and a gradual strengthening of domestic economic dynamics.
In manufacturing and trade, business activity also remained in the growth zone, with indices of 50.8 and 50.3, respectively. However, compared to December (52.0 and 51.3), growth in these sectors slowed slightly, indicating a more cautious approach by businesses amid lingering uncertainties.
Chart 1. Dynamics of the Business Activity Index (BAI)*
* A value above 50 indicates a positive change, while a value below 50 indicates a negative change. The further the index value is from the 50 level (either upward or downward), the higher the rate of change (increase or decrease) of the indicator.
Construction and mining still under pressure
Not all sectors have fully recovered. In construction, the index improved but remained below the neutral threshold at 47.1, up from 45.4 in December. This suggests that while negative trends are easing, the sector continues to face headwinds.
In the mining sector, the index edged down to 49.1 from 49.4, keeping it in contraction territory. The decline is modest, pointing to a temporary slowdown rather than a sharp deterioration.
Business climate: confidence tempered by caution
Despite the rebound in business activity, the Business Climate Index (BCI) declined to 4.4 in January, compared with 5.2 in December. This drop reflects weaker assessments of both current and future business conditions, highlighting a cautious outlook among entrepreneurs.
The business cycle “clock” indicator was positioned on the boundary between the recovery and growth phases, suggesting that the economy is moving forward but has not yet entered a phase of strong, sustained expansion.
Demand shows signs of improvement
A positive signal came from improving demand dynamics across almost all sectors. The only exception was manufacturing, where the pace of demand growth slowed slightly. Nevertheless, demand did not turn negative, indicating a period of adjustment rather than decline.
Outlook: steady but measured progress
Overall, January’s data indicate that Kazakhstan’s economy is regaining momentum at the start of 2026, supported by growth in services and stabilisation in trade and manufacturing. At the same time, weaker business sentiment and continued challenges in construction and mining suggest that recovery remains gradual and cautious.
As Rustem Orazalin noted, businesses are beginning to move forward again, but they are doing so carefully, balancing emerging opportunities with ongoing risks. If current trends persist, the first quarter of 2026 could mark a transition from tentative recovery toward more sustainable economic growth.
