The National Bank of Kazakhstan has unveiled the results of its latest macroeconomic survey, conducted among leading experts and analysts. This comprehensive survey sheds light on various critical economic parameters, providing insights into the future trajectory of Kazakhstan’s economy through 2027, DKnews.kz reports.
The parameters assessed in the survey include Brent crude oil prices, Kazakhstan's economic growth rate, inflation, the base interest rate, exports and imports of goods and services, and the tenge exchange rate. Here’s a detailed analysis of the survey findings and their implications.
Brent Crude Oil Price Projections
Oil remains a cornerstone of Kazakhstan's economy, and its price is a vital economic indicator. The January 2025 survey reflects updated scenario conditions for Brent crude oil prices:
- 2025: The median price estimate has been adjusted to $75.0 per barrel, down from the previous forecast of $76.5 per barrel.
- 2026: The projection remains unchanged at $74.0 per barrel.
- 2027: Expectations converge at $75.0 per barrel, suggesting stable long-term trends.
The slight downward revision for 2025 aligns with evolving global market conditions, including changes in supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical factors.
Economic Growth Outlook
Kazakhstan’s economy is poised for steady growth in the coming years, with experts projecting stable performance:
- 2025: The growth rate is forecasted at 4.7%, maintaining the previous estimate.
- 2026: The projection remains at 4.5%.
- 2027: Experts expect the growth rate to continue at 4.5%.
This sustained growth trajectory underscores the resilience of Kazakhstan’s economy amid global uncertainties and reflects consistent development in sectors beyond oil and gas.
Inflation Forecasts
Inflation remains a key challenge, prompting analysts to revise their forecasts upwards:
- 2025: The inflation rate is now expected to reach 7.5%, up from the earlier estimate of 6.9%.
- 2026: The forecast has been revised from 6.0% to 6.5%.
- 2027: Inflation is expected to moderate to 5.6%, signaling gradual stabilization.
These revisions reflect external pressures, such as fluctuating global commodity prices, and internal factors, including demand-driven inflation within the domestic economy.
Base Interest Rate Adjustments
In response to inflationary pressures, forecasts for the base interest rate have been adjusted significantly:
- 2025: The median base rate projection has been revised upward from 12.5% to 14.7%.
- 2026: Forecasts have increased from 10.3% to 11.8%.
- 2027: The base rate is expected to stabilize at 10.5%.
These adjustments highlight the efforts to balance economic growth and inflation control, ensuring financial stability.
Survey Participants and Methodology
The survey involved 12 organizations specializing in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting. Participants included:
- Market professionals.
- Research institutes.
- International organizations.
- Credit rating agencies.
This diversity ensures a well-rounded view of economic trends, incorporating both local and global perspectives.
Key Takeaways
- Oil Stability: Brent crude oil prices are expected to stabilize, providing a predictable revenue stream for the economy.
- Moderate Growth: Kazakhstan’s economy is set for steady growth, reflecting its resilience and adaptability.
- Inflation Control: While inflationary pressures persist, projections indicate gradual stabilization by 2027.
- Monetary Policy: Adjustments in the base interest rate reflect a proactive approach to managing inflation and supporting economic growth.
It is important to note that the macroeconomic survey reflects independent opinions and assessments from market participants. The projections do not represent the official forecasts of the National Bank of Kazakhstan. Instead, they provide valuable insights into professional market expectations for Kazakhstan’s economic and global market developments.
As the nation navigates an evolving global economic landscape, these projections offer a roadmap for policymakers, businesses, and investors, highlighting both opportunities and challenges ahead.
