June FX Market Review: Tenge Weakened Slightly, but Market Remains Balanced, DKnews.kz reports.
In June 2025, the Kazakhstani tenge depreciated by 1.7%, reaching 519.73 tenge per US dollar. This came amid shifting global and domestic market dynamics. Meanwhile, the average daily trading volume on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) slightly declined — from USD 238 million to USD 235 million. Total monthly trading volume amounted to USD 4.7 billion.
USD 800 Million Sold from the National Fund
In June, USD 800 million was sold from the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan, which enabled the allocation of budget transfers to the republican budget. This amount accounted for 17% of the total trading volume, or roughly USD 40 million per day.
Outlook for July: USD 600–700 Million in Planned Sales
Based on preliminary transfer requests from the Government for July, the National Bank of Kazakhstan expects to sell between USD 600 and 700 million from the National Fund to meet fiscal needs.
Mirroring Mechanism: Tenge Liquidity Sterilization
As part of the mirroring mechanism, KZT 213 billion was sterilized in June. In July, the National Bank plans to sell foreign currency equivalent to approximately KZT 290 billion to achieve the same objective of reducing excess tenge liquidity.
All transactions involving the National Fund and the mirroring mechanism are conducted under the principle of market neutrality, meaning that foreign currency is sold in a regular and measured manner to avoid distorting the market.
No Currency Interventions Conducted
Importantly, the National Bank did not carry out any foreign exchange interventions in June, allowing the exchange rate to reflect natural supply and demand conditions on the market.
Quasi-Government Sector: USD 322 Million in FX Revenue Sold
Entities in the quasi-government sector sold approximately USD 322 million in foreign currency under the mandatory sale requirement, helping to stabilize supply on the domestic FX market.
FX Purchases for the UAPF Portfolio
In June, the National Bank purchased USD 188 million in foreign currency on the exchange on behalf of the Unified Accumulative Pension Fund (UAPF). This volume accounted for around 4% of total FX market activity.
The objective is to maintain the foreign currency share of UAPF pension assets at no less than 40% over the long term, ensuring diversification and real returns. As the trustee and asset manager of UAPF, the National Bank will continue FX purchases depending on market conditions. The planned purchase volume for July is capped at USD 100 million, based on projected pension fund growth.
Transparency and Flexible Exchange Rate Policy
The National Bank of Kazakhstan remains committed to full transparency and will continue publishing comprehensive data on its operations in the FX market.
In the short term, the tenge’s performance will depend on:
- market participants’ expectations,
- quarterly tax payments,
- global commodity and financial market trends,
- and geopolitical developments.
The Bank will continue to uphold a flexible exchange rate regime, which helps prevent macroeconomic imbalances and preserve gold and foreign exchange reserves.
Conclusion: While the tenge saw moderate depreciation in June, Kazakhstan’s FX market remained stable and orderly. Through coordinated operations involving the National Fund, quasi-government sector revenue, and UAPF asset management, the National Bank ensured liquidity and balance — without resorting to direct intervention. The focus remains on market-based, transparent, and forward-looking policies that support both economic resilience and financial stability.
