Kazakhstan’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience amid global uncertainty, according to the latest macroeconomic survey released by the National Bank of Kazakhstan. The survey, conducted among 16 leading research institutes, international organizations, and rating agencies, reflects improved sentiment among market analysts regarding the country’s growth prospects, inflation trajectory, and interest rate policy, DKnews.kz reports.
Oil Prices and Economic Growth: A Cautious Optimism
Analysts slightly downgraded their 2025 average Brent crude oil price forecast but raised projections for 2026 and 2027. Across the forecast horizon, the price of Brent is expected to hover between $68.5 and $69 per barrel.
This modest optimism in global oil prices is accompanied by an upward revision in GDP growth expectations for Kazakhstan:
- 2025 GDP: upgraded from 5.0% to 5.1%
- 2026 GDP: from 4.5% to 4.6%
- 2027 GDP: from 4.3% to 4.5%
These revised numbers signal increased confidence in Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic fundamentals and the effectiveness of its fiscal and monetary policies.
Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations: Mixed But Manageable
Inflation forecasts showed mixed movements:
- 2025: median forecast increased from 10.7% to 11%
- 2026: forecast declined from 9.4% to 9%
- 2027: forecast rose slightly from 6.8% to 7%
Despite the persistent inflationary pressures, analysts believe the National Bank will maintain its key interest rate at the current level of 16.5% until the end of 2025. Forecasts for subsequent years were revised downward:
- 2026: from 14.5% to 14%
- 2027: from 12% to 11.8%
These expectations indicate a cautious yet stabilizing monetary environment, with the National Bank prioritizing price stability without sacrificing growth.
Who Participated in the Survey?
The quarterly macro survey featured responses from 16 organizations involved in macroeconomic forecasting in Kazakhstan. These include:
- Professional financial market participants
- Research institutions
- International organizations
- Global and regional rating agencies
Notably, this quarter’s respondent list was expanded to include experts from Alatau City Bank Analytics, further broadening the scope and representativeness of the survey.
What the Survey Really Means
It’s important to note that the macroeconomic survey does not represent the official outlook of the National Bank. Rather, it offers a consolidated snapshot of independent forecasts and market expectations regarding Kazakhstan’s economic direction in both domestic and global contexts.
For investors, entrepreneurs, and policymakers, the latest survey delivers several key messages:
- Stability is returning, even amid global headwinds.
- Kazakhstan’s economy is on track for steady growth, supported by a strong oil sector and infrastructure investment.
- While inflation remains a concern, monetary policy is expected to remain steady, providing predictability for businesses and consumers alike.
With its diversified economy and disciplined macroeconomic management, Kazakhstan is carving out a position of stability in an otherwise volatile region. The latest survey confirms what insiders have long seen — the country is quietly but steadily gaining economic momentum.
