As of the end of July 2025, the Kazakhstani tenge weakened by 4% against the US dollar, settling at 540.72 KZT per USD. The decline was driven by a mix of seasonal demand, external economic pressures, and speculative activity. Still, the National Bank of Kazakhstan managed to keep the situation under control through targeted currency interventions and strategic sales from the National Fund, DKnews.kz reports.
Trading Volumes Climb as Pressure Builds
The average daily trading volume on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) rose from $235 million to $260 million in July. The total volume for the month reached $5.7 billion, indicating heightened demand for foreign currency. This uptick is largely attributed to seasonal travel, increased imports, and business settlements.
What Did the National Bank Do?
To fund budget transfers and support infrastructure projects such as the Taldykorgan - Usharal gas pipeline, the National Fund sold $700 million in July. This accounted for 12% of total market operations - or around $32 million in sales per day.
Additionally, as part of sterilization operations (mirror sales to absorb excess liquidity), foreign currency equivalent to 290 billion KZT was sold. A similar amount is expected to be sold in August.
The National Bank emphasized that all these transactions were carried out under the principle of market neutrality - meaning sales are distributed evenly over time to avoid distorting exchange rate signals.
Interventions: When the Market Needs a Push
On July 30, amid extremely low liquidity and growing speculative pressure, the National Bank stepped in with currency interventions totaling $125.6 million. This helped cool speculation and stabilize the FX market at a critical moment.
What About the Quasi-Public Sector and Pension Assets?
Enterprises in the quasi-public sector sold approximately $450 million in foreign currency in July, in line with the mandatory sale requirement designed to support market stability.
Meanwhile, to maintain the foreign currency share of pension assets (ENPF) above the 40% threshold, the National Bank purchased $35 million on the exchange during the month. This represented about 0.6% of total trading volume. However, with the FX share already above the target and the current rate deemed unfavorable, no further purchases using pension assets are planned for August.
What’s Next?
In keeping with its transparency principles, the National Bank will continue to disclose full information on its foreign exchange operations.
In the short term, the tenge’s performance will depend on:
- market sentiment and expectations
- quarterly tax payments
- global commodity and financial market trends
- shifts in the geopolitical landscape
The National Bank remains committed to a flexible exchange rate regime - a strategy that helps prevent the buildup of imbalances and ensures the preservation of Kazakhstan’s foreign exchange reserves.
