Kazakhstan’s petroleum products market continues to show steady growth, but remains dependent on imports for certain types of fuel. According to Caspy Commodity Exchange analytical report by Kazakhstan there were produced 87.7 million tonnes of crude oil in 2024 (97.1% of the target), processed 17.9 million tonnes (100% of the target), and produced 14.5 million tonnes of petroleum products (102.1% of the target). The 2025 target for oil refining is 17.6 million tonnes, with a petroleum product output of 14.6 million tonnes. These figures reflect Kazakhstan’s efforts to expand domestic refining capacity to meet internal demand, DKNews.kz reports.
However, domestic production is still insufficient. In 2025, Kazakhstan plans to import from Russia:
- 285,000 tonnes of motor gasoline,
- 300,000 tonnes of jet fuel,
- 450,000 tonnes of diesel fuel, and
- 500,000 tonnes of bitumen.
CCX experts note that this is a preventive measure aimed at proactive risk management and ensuring stable domestic supply.
At the same time, Kazakhstan remains a major exporter of crude oil. In 2024, it exported 68.6 million tonnes, and in 2025, this is expected to increase up to 70.5 million tonnes. Key export routes include:
- CPC pipeline (54.9 million tonnes),
- Atyrau - Samara (8.8 million tonnes),
- Atasu - Alashankou (1.2 million tonnes),
- Aktau seaport (3.6 million tonnes).
Kazakhstan also increased oil transit to China and Uzbekistan to 10.2 million tonnes in 2024.
The domestic fuel market is characterized by a relatively low tax burden, about 36% of the fuel price compared to 71% in Russia. This results in lower domestic prices but also encourages “grey export” to neighboring countries where fuel is more expensive. Experts estimate Kazakhstan loses around $1.2 billion annually from illegal fuel exports. To counter this, the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan extended the ban on petroleum product exports for another six months starting in March 2025.
According to the Agency for Protection and Development of Competition of the Republic of Kazakhstan (APDC), both the petroleum product market and crude oil sales remain highly concentrated and administratively regulated. APDC is steadily pursuing gradual deregulation and a shift to benchmark-based pricing, while strengthening control of commodity exchanges.
Caspy Commodity Exchange analysts highlight that these measures aim to enhance market transparency and liquidity, and reduce the influence of intermediaries. Proposed initiatives include: pilot trades linked to Platts international indices, formalizing criteria for crude allocation to refineries, consolidating liquidity on leading trading platforms, as well as recognizing exchanges as financial monitoring entities with mandatory internal rule verification, transaction monitoring, and conflict of interest management.
Under these conditions, exchange trading is beginning to play a pivotal role. Although still a relatively new mechanism in Kazakhstan, exchange trading of petroleum products is actively developing as a tool to improve transparency and competition.
According to CCX data, AI-92 gasoline remains the most stable product on the exchange, with average prices ranging from 200,000 KZT to 210,000 KZT per tone and steady year-round demand.
AI-95 gasoline is gaining share on the Caspy Commodity Exchange, with trading volumes still behind AI-92 but growing in line with the modernization of the vehicle fleet. Weighted average prices are higher, between 220,000 KZT and 280,000 KZT per tone.
Diesel fuel is the most traded product on the exchange by volume, especially during the planting and harvesting seasons, when monthly trading volumes exceed 5,000–6,000 tonnes. Weighted average prices in 2023 - 2024 ranged between 270,000 KZT and 290,000 KZT per tone. Analysts of the CCX note that the diesel market is highly sensitive to seasonal factors.
Jet fuel trading on CCX is irregular, with volumes ranging from hundreds to several thousand tones per month. Average prices increased from approximately 295,000 KZT per tone in 2022 to 400,000 - 420,000 KZT in 2023 - 2024. Analysts attribute this to global kerosene prices and a limited number of suppliers, making the market vulnerable to logistical disruptions and price volatility.
The report emphasizes that exchange trading has not yet become the primary sales channel for petroleum products. Actual trading volumes still represent a small portion of the quotas allocated for exchange sales. Nevertheless, exchanges serve as price benchmarking and ensure transparency in a market where most deals are concluded via direct off-exchange contracts.
“Our analysis shows that petroleum products remain a key element of the country’s energy balance. Kazakhstan maintains stable refining levels, invests in modernization, and is gradually moving away from tight regulation, but still faces a highly concentrated market and import dependency. In this context, exchange trading is becoming an essential tool for establishing transparent market rules, reducing intermediary influence, and creating fair price benchmarks. In the long term, this will help Kazakhstan build a more competitive and resilient fuel market,” said Murat Kadissov, President of “Caspy Commodity Exchange” JSC.
In addition to the domestic market analysis, the CCX report covers global forecasts. According to OPEC, global oil demand will reach 112 million barrels per day by 2030; according to EIA estimates, Brent prices could fall to $49 by March - April 2026 amid growing reserves. The report also reviews taxation and regulatory mechanisms in Kazakhstan and Russia, scenarios for forming common oil and petroleum product markets within the EAEU, and the role of digital technologies and AI in the sector’s development.
