Since early October, the tenge has been gaining strength - steadily and quite logically - and has now settled around 499–500 per US dollar. For the national currency, this is a noticeable jump - roughly 9% growth in just two months, DKNews.kz reports.
Naturally, many people are asking: Why is this happening, and how long will it last? Let’s break it down in simple, everyday language.
The key point: global conditions turned favorable
Several external factors aligned at the same time, giving Kazakhstan a strong boost.
1. Oil prices remain above $60 per barrel
When oil prices stay high, Kazakhstan receives more foreign currency revenue. That alone supports the tenge.
2. The US dollar weakened globally
The Federal Reserve has been lowering interest rates, and as a result, the global dollar index has fallen 8.3% since the beginning of the year.
In simple terms: when the dollar weakens, many emerging-market currencies - including the tenge - tend to strengthen.
3. Investors renewed their interest in countries like Kazakhstan
A weaker dollar pushes global investors to look for higher returns elsewhere. Kazakhstan, with its improving economic signals, caught their attention.
What the Government and National Bank did - and why it matters
A big part of the story is that Kazakhstan’s key institutions began acting in a coordinated, consistent way.
A major 2026–2028 program was launched
Its goals include:
- reducing inflation,
- improving the efficiency of budget spending,
- making the economy more predictable,
- increasing households’ real incomes.
Put simply: the government is trying to slow down price growth, stabilize the economy, and give people more confidence in planning their finances.
The National Bank continues its moderately tight monetary policy
When interest rates are high, tenge deposits and government bonds become more attractive. Both local citizens and foreign investors are more willing to keep money in tenge rather than dollars - and that supports the national currency.
Global investors poured record amounts into Kazakhstan
From early October to the end of November, foreign investors increased their holdings of Kazakhstan’s government securities by $1.1 billion.
Their total holdings reached a historic high of $3.6 billion.
Since the start of the year, inflows have totaled $1.5 billion.
Why does this matter? Because when large amounts of foreign currency enter the country, the supply increases - strengthening the tenge.
A stronger tenge helps slow inflation
We all feel rising prices in stores. But a stronger tenge is one of the factors that can ease that pressure.
Kazakhstan imports a large share of consumer goods, so a strong tenge means:
- lower impact from global inflation,
- slower price growth for imported goods,
- more stability for domestic prices.
In other words, the exchange rate isn’t just a number in exchange offices - it directly affects what we pay every day.
The National Bank is letting the market operate freely
The National Bank continues to maintain a free-floating exchange rate. This means the tenge is strengthening naturally, based on real supply and demand.
The regulator emphasizes:
- no signs of speculative pressure,
- no need for emergency intervention,
- the exchange rate is forming naturally.
What this means for an ordinary person
To put it very simply - the strengthening of the tenge shows that:
- the economy is becoming more predictable,
- investors trust Kazakhstan more,
- global conditions are favorable,
- the National Bank’s policies are delivering results.
It doesn’t mean the tenge will only rise - volatility is normal. But overall, the trend suggests that Kazakhstan’s financial system is becoming more stable.
The strengthening of the tenge is the result of both global market trends and domestic reforms. For the first time in a while, Kazakhstan is attracting major investment inflows, and households may begin to feel the impact of slowing inflation.
The National Bank continues to monitor the situation and currently sees no factors that could sharply reverse the trend.
If state policies remain consistent, the tenge has a good chance of staying stable moving forward.
