On the first trading day of 2026, the oil market opened without sharp moves. Expectations of oversupply largely neutralized geopolitical risks that would normally push prices higher, DKNews.kz reports.
Brent crude settled slightly below $61 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate closed above $57. Trading volumes were modest, as market participants preferred to stay cautious.
OPEC+ opts for caution
With seasonal demand slowing, OPEC is in no hurry to increase production.
On January 4, key members of OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, will hold an online meeting and are widely expected to:
- maintain current output levels
- at least through the first quarter
The logic is simple: the market remains fragile.
In 2025 prices fell sharply as:
- OPEC+ increased production
- competitors from the US to Guyana also ramped up output
- global demand growth slowed
The International Energy Agency now forecasts an oversupply of about 3.8 million barrels per day in the year ahead.
Oversupply as a shock absorber
That surplus is acting like a buffer.
Even potential disruptions are unlikely to trigger immediate price spikes.
One area of concern is Iran.
- protests erupted after the local currency hit record lows
- Washington signaled support for demonstrators
- Tehran warned of possible retaliation against US forces in the region
According to the IEA, Iran ranked ninth globally in oil production in 2023.
For now, however, these risks remain more political than market-driven.
What it means for the market
Three signals stand out today:
- supply is growing faster than demand
- OPEC+ is reluctant to open the taps
- geopolitics alone is not changing the trend
As a result, prices are not surging — they are waiting for direction.
Traders are watching closely:
- the upcoming OPEC+ meeting
- demand indicators
- developments around Iran
before making big moves.
