Kazakhstan’s financial markets closed 2025 with a clear signal of renewed foreign interest. Non-resident investors increased their holdings of Kazakhstan’s government securities (GS) by 82% year on year, from KZT 1.1 trillion in 2024 to KZT 2.0 trillion by the end of 2025. In December alone, inflows amounted to KZT 136 billion. The figures were published by the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK), based on data from the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan, DKNews.kz reports.
Analysts say the growing presence of foreign capital has become one of the key factors supporting stability in both the currency and broader financial markets.
FX market: the tenge holds steady
On Tuesday, the USD/KZT pair traded within a narrow range and closed at KZT 512.10 per dollar, weakening by just 0.73 tenge. Trading volume reached USD 380.4 million.
Market participants note that demand for foreign currency from businesses and households — driven by import payments and external debt servicing — was largely met by:
- foreign currency sales conducted by the National Bank of Kazakhstan,
- export proceeds from quasi-sovereign companies,
- and the continued rise in non-resident investments in government bonds.
Together, these factors have helped limit pressure on the tenge.
Why non-residents are buying Kazakhstan’s government bonds
According to AFK, several factors explain the sharp increase in non-resident demand for tenge-denominated government securities:
- a high base interest rate in Kazakhstan;
- signals from the regulator that the rate is likely to remain unchanged over the next six months;
- a broader increase in global risk appetite toward emerging market assets.
As a result, tenge-denominated bonds have become attractive instruments for carry trade strategies, despite ongoing volatility in global markets.
Money market: excess liquidity remains
Liquidity conditions in the money market remain comfortable. Benchmark rates are hovering near the lower bound of the base rate corridor:
- TONIA at 17.00%,
- SWAP-1D at 7.18%.
Demand at the National Bank’s deposit auction rose to KZT 1.7 trillion, up by KZT 234.5 billion, and was fully satisfied at an annual rate of 18%. The outstanding open position has stabilised at KZT 6.6 trillion, reflecting excess liquidity in the system.
Stock market: KASE index advances
The Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) index gained 0.6%, reaching 7,167.9 points, supported by selective buying in the mining and telecommunications sectors.
Top contributors to the index included:
- Kazatomprom (+3.6%), amid expectations of stronger global uranium demand following news that the US government plans to allocate USD 2.7 billion to uranium enrichment;
- Kazakhtelecom (+1.1%), supported by expectations of continued business growth.
In the debt market, the Ministry of Finance placed KZT 122.9 billion in bonds with yields ranging from 15.51% to 16.42% and maturities between 1.9 and 9.1 years.
External backdrop: oil and global markets under pressure
Oil prices fell 1.2% on Wednesday to around USD 60 per barrel, following statements by US President Donald Trump regarding potential supplies of Venezuelan crude to the US market and possible investments in Venezuela’s energy sector.
US equity indices mostly declined by 0.3–0.9%, as investors weighed rising geopolitical tensions and new policy initiatives from the White House affecting defence and real estate sectors.
In defensive assets, US Treasury yields edged down to 4.14%, the dollar index held near 98.7 points, while gold prices slipped to around USD 4,463 per ounce amid profit-taking.
What this means for Kazakhstan
The sharp rise in non-resident investments in government securities has become a key stabilising factor for Kazakhstan’s financial system. It supports the tenge, reduces volatility in the FX market, and improves conditions for government borrowing.
At the same time, analysts caution that this capital is highly sensitive to external shocks. A sudden shift in global sentiment or a rise in geopolitical risks could quickly reverse inflows. For now, however, Kazakhstan is benefiting from a rare combination of high yields and relative macro-financial stability, making its tenge assets attractive to foreign investors.
