The analytical team at Halyk Finance has published its review of Kazakhstan’s banking sector for November 2025. The picture is mixed: banks remain profitable and lending continues to expand, but growth is slowing, problem loans are increasing, and regulatory pressure is starting to weigh on returns, DKNews.kz reports.
Assets are growing, but free liquidity is shrinking
In November, assets of second-tier banks rose by 0.8% month-on-month, reaching KZT 68.3 trillion. Since the beginning of the year, asset growth stands at 11%, noticeably below last year’s pace.
Changes in asset structure point to tightening liquidity:
- securities portfolios increased by 3.8% month-on-month;
- liquid assets declined by 2.8%;
- the share of liquid assets fell to 32.3%, down from nearly 35% a year earlier.
This suggests banks have less readily available cash buffers than before.
Lending: business holds up, consumer loans slow
Total bank lending increased by 1.1% in November to KZT 42.4 trillion, with year-to-date growth of 18%.
By segment:
- corporate lending rose 16.9% since the start of the year (12.4% a year earlier);
- retail lending grew 18.8%;
- consumer lending slowed to 20.4%, compared with almost 31% in the same period of 2024.
Consumer loans now account for 39.1% of the total loan portfolio.
Interest rates: cheaper for households, costlier for business
The weighted-average lending rate declined to 17.9%, but trends diverged:
- rates for corporate borrowers increased to 17.6%;
- rates for households fell to 18.2%.
This reflects banks’ growing caution toward business lending amid tighter regulation and rising costs.
Non-performing loans are creeping up
The share of non-performing loans overdue by more than 90 days (NPL90+) increased to 3.7%, equivalent to about KZT 1.6 trillion.
The highest NPL ratios were recorded at:
- Eurasian Bank,
- Alatau City Bank,
- Bereke Bank,
- Home Credit Bank,
- Kaspi Bank.
Together, these five banks account for more than half of all NPLs in the sector. At the same time, provisioning coverage declined to 132%, down sharply from last year.
Deposits decline, dollarization eases
In November, total deposits fell by 0.5% to KZT 44.5 trillion, with declines in both tenge and foreign-currency deposits.
On the positive side:
- the dollarization ratio dropped to 21%;
- retail foreign-currency deposits have fallen 3.4% year-to-date.
Profits remain solid, but profitability weakens
Since the start of 2025, banks have earned KZT 2.5 trillion in profit, up 7.2% year-on-year. However:
- return on equity (ROAE) declined to 28.6%;
- return on assets (ROAA) remained at 4.2%.
Analysts link this trend to the first stage of higher minimum reserve requirements, introduced in September 2025, which directly reduces banks’ margins.
Central bank eases liquidity withdrawal
In November, the National Bank of Kazakhstan reduced liquidity withdrawals by 10.2% month-on-month, slightly easing pressure on banks. The base rate was kept unchanged at 18%.
Key developments during the month
- A mission by the International Monetary Fund confirmed the resilience of Kazakhstan’s banking system;
- new rules on mobile transfers were introduced;
- Parliament approved new legislation on banks and financial market regulation;
- ForteBank completed the acquisition of 75% of Home Credit Bank;
- shareholders of Bank RBK approved early repayment of state support.
Kazakhstan’s banking sector remains profitable and stable, but it is clearly entering a phase of more cautious growth. Credit risks are rising, regulatory pressure is increasing, and returns are gradually coming down.
The key challenge ahead will be whether banks can strike a sustainable balance between profitability, risk management, and tougher regulatory requirements—without undermining lending to the real economy.
