Oil production by OPEC declined in December despite an agreement under OPEC+ to increase output, as sharp drops in supplies from Iran and Venezuela more than offset the planned production hike. This is shown by a Reuters survey, DKNews.kz reports.
According to the data, OPEC pumped an average of 28.40 million barrels per day in December, 100,000 barrels per day less than the revised November level. The steepest decline came from Iran.
Planned Increase Failed to Materialize
Under the December OPEC+ agreement, eight participating countries were expected to adjust output. Five OPEC members - Algeria, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE - were supposed to raise production by a combined 85,000 barrels per day.
At the same time, Iraq and the UAE were required to implement compensatory cuts totaling 135,000 barrels per day to offset earlier overproduction.
In practice, however, the numbers fell well short of expectations. Reuters estimates that the five countries increased output by just 20,000 barrels per day, far below the agreed target.
Iran and Venezuela Dragged Output Lower
The main drag on OPEC production came from countries under heavy US sanctions.
Iran’s oil supplies fell by 100,000 barrels per day in December, marking the largest drop among OPEC members. Venezuela also saw exports decline by 70,000 barrels per day, as the impact of US restrictions intensified.
Analysts warn that the effect of these disruptions could become even more pronounced in the current month, adding further uncertainty to global oil supply.
Near Quotas, but Estimates Diverge
The Reuters survey and data from OPEC’s secondary sources suggest that overall production remains broadly in line with agreed quotas.
However, other assessments paint a different picture. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that actual output by OPEC and its allies may be significantly higher than officially reported levels.
This gap between estimates highlights the uncertainty surrounding real supply conditions and complicates efforts to gauge the true balance of the oil market.
What This Means for the Oil Market
December’s figures underline how fragile the OPEC+ production framework remains in the face of sanctions and geopolitical pressure. Even carefully negotiated output increases can be quickly neutralized by factors beyond the cartel’s control.
For the market, this means heightened sensitivity to any developments involving Iran, Venezuela, and US policy. In the months ahead, these issues are likely to remain key drivers of oil prices.
