As 2025 comes to an end, Kazakhstan’s banking sector looks confident on the surface. Assets are growing, profits remain high, and the quality of loan portfolios is still under control. But behind these solid numbers, an important shift is taking place – credit for businesses is becoming more expensive, and large companies are starting to slow down borrowing, DKNews.kz reports.
23 banks and an open financial system
As of December 1, 2025, Kazakhstan’s banking sector consists of 23 second-tier banks. Fifteen of them operate with foreign participation, including 10 subsidiary banks. This keeps Kazakhstan among the most open banking markets in the region.
Total banking sector assets reached 68.3 trillion tenge. In November alone, assets grew by 0.8%, while growth since the beginning of the year stood at 11%. The main driver remains lending – the loan portfolio expanded to 42.4 trillion tenge.
Liquidity remains a key strength
High-quality liquid assets of second-tier banks amounted to 19.8 trillion tenge, or 29% of total assets. This level of liquidity allows banks to meet their obligations in full, even under stress scenarios.
Simply put, Kazakhstan’s banks still have a solid financial safety cushion.
Lending to the economy keeps growing
Loans to the economy increased by 0.7% in November, reaching 39.4 trillion tenge. Since the beginning of 2025, lending has grown by 16.8%.
One of the most notable trends is the strengthening role of the tenge. Loans issued in the national currency rose by 1.2% to 36 trillion tenge, while foreign currency loans fell by 4.5% to 3.4 trillion tenge. This was largely driven by the tenge strengthening by 3.4% against the US dollar.
As a result, tenge-denominated loans now account for 91.3% of total lending – close to a historical high.
Business lending slows, while SMEs gain ground
After the base rate was raised from 16.5% to 18% in October 2025, lending to businesses began to cool. In November, loans to business entities declined by 0.2% to 14.8 trillion tenge, although growth since the beginning of the year still stands at 13.5%.
The structure of business lending has changed:
- loans to large businesses fell by 2.2% to 5.3 trillion tenge
- loans to small and medium-sized enterprises increased by 0.8% to 6.5 trillion tenge
- loans to individual entrepreneurs grew by 1.5% to 3.1 trillion tenge
Banks are increasingly shifting their focus from large corporations toward more flexible SME segments.
Which sectors are growing fastest
Over the first 11 months of 2025, lending increased across all major sectors of the economy. The strongest growth was recorded in:
- information and communications – up 36.8%
- construction – up 18.9%
- trade – up 18.4%
- industry – up 11.5%
Agriculture, transport, and logistics also showed steady growth, pointing to a more balanced expansion of the economy.
Loans are getting more expensive for businesses
In November 2025, the average weighted interest rate on tenge loans to businesses rose to 22.3%.
By segment:
- large businesses and SMEs – 20.1%
- individual entrepreneurs – 30.4%
High borrowing costs remain one of the key risks for investment activity heading into 2026.
Households continue to borrow actively
Loans to households reached 24.6 trillion tenge, increasing by 1.2% over the month and by 18.8% since the beginning of the year.
The structure looks as follows:
- consumer loans – 16.6 trillion tenge
- mortgage loans – 6.8 trillion tenge
At the same time, borrowing has become slightly cheaper for households. In November, the average interest rate on tenge loans to individuals fell by 1.6 percentage points to 18.2%, largely due to the growing share of installment-based loans.
Mortgage rates averaged 9.6%, while consumer loan rates stood at 19.1%.
Loan quality remains under control
As of December 1, 2025, non-performing loans overdue by more than 90 days (NPL90+) accounted for 3.7% of the total loan portfolio, or 1.6 trillion tenge.
- NPL90+ in business lending – 2.6%
- NPL90+ in household lending – 4.6%
Coverage of non-performing loans by provisions remains high at 63.3%, providing a comfortable buffer against potential risks.
Deposits decline, dollarization continues to fall
In November, resident deposits fell by 0.5% to 44.5 trillion tenge, mainly due to a reduction in foreign currency deposits.
As a result, the level of dollarization dropped to 21%, compared to 22.5% at the beginning of the year. This reflects growing confidence in the national currency.
Interest rates on deposits increased noticeably:
- non-bank legal entities – 16.8%
- individuals – 14.8%
Banks are earning near-record profits
In January-November 2025, banks’ net profit reached 2.5 trillion tenge, up 7.2% year-on-year.
Profitability remains strong:
- return on assets (ROA) – 4.2%
- return on equity (ROE) – 28.8%
Banks’ own capital rose to 10.4 trillion tenge, while capital adequacy ratios remain well above regulatory requirements.
Kazakhstan’s banking sector is closing 2025 in a strong position. Banks are stable, profitable, and well-capitalized. However, high interest rates are becoming a growing challenge for businesses and may slow investment activity in 2026.
For now, the sector continues to balance growth, risk management, and profitability – a combination that remains critical for the country’s economic stability.
