In 2025, Kazakhstan’s housing market became one of the fastest-growing segments of the economy. Property prices rose well above inflation across almost all segments, while transaction activity surged toward the end of the year. However, analysts warn that in 2026 the market may shift into a phase of more moderate growth, shaped by new regulations, tighter financing, and changing demand, DKNews.kz reports.
This assessment is shared by Arslan Aronov, Senior Analyst at the Halyk Finance Analytical Center, who reviewed the 2025 results and outlined the key factors that will define the market going forward.
Housing prices outpaced inflation
Kazakhstan’s annual inflation in 2025 stood at 12.3%, yet housing prices increased at a noticeably faster pace:
- Primary market (new housing): +15.7% year-on-year
- Secondary market: +14.6%
- Rental housing: +13.1%
Compared to 2024, price growth accelerated sharply. In the primary market, annual growth increased almost fivefold, while in the secondary market it rose by 3.5 times.
Which cities saw the fastest price growth
Unexpectedly, the leaders in new housing price growth were Konaev and Pavlodar, where prices jumped by 22.9% year-on-year. These cities outpaced the traditional real estate hubs:
- Almaty: +19.8%
- Astana: +17.4%
- Shymkent: +15.6%
At the same time, in cities such as Petropavl, Semey, and Karaganda, price growth in the primary market remained below 5%.
In the secondary market, Almaty stood out as the clear leader, with prices rising by 25.4% year-on-year. Karaganda recorded a modest 2.4% increase, while prices in Konaev remained unchanged from 2024 levels.
What is driving prices higher
Analysts point to several key factors behind the rapid rise in housing prices.
First, tighter regulation of shared construction.
Property transactions are now allowed only through equity participation agreements, advertising is permitted solely with official guarantees or permits, and developers are subject to stricter oversight by local authorities and engineering firms.
Second, a sharp increase in withdrawals from the pension fund.
Payments from the Unified Accumulative Pension Fund for housing improvement purposes surged by 83% in the first 11 months of 2025, significantly boosting demand.
Third, inflationary pressure and expectations of a VAT hike.
Anticipated changes to the VAT rate in 2026 have already been priced in, particularly in the primary market, where construction costs are rising.
Rental market also heats up
By the end of 2025, rental prices also outpaced inflation. Nationwide, rents increased by 13.1%, while some cities saw much steeper growth:
- Pavlodar: +42.9%
- Petropavl: +40.9%
- Aktobe: +30.4%
This indicates sustained pressure on the housing market not only from buyers, but also from renters.
December surge in transactions
As in previous years, December became the most active month. A total of 53,000 housing transactions were registered, up 32.9% compared to November.
- Apartments accounted for 77.5% of all transactions
- The largest markets were Astana (22%) and Almaty (17%)
- The lowest activity was recorded in the Ulytau region (0.8%)
Overall, the number of housing transactions in 2025 exceeded 2024 levels by 3.6%, pointing to steady but gradually cooling demand.
What to expect in 2026
According to Halyk Finance, the housing market will remain in growth territory in 2026, but the pace will slow.
Key restraining factors include:
- higher pension fund withdrawal thresholds introduced on January 1, 2026,
- tighter mortgage lending conditions,
- upcoming tax changes.
The primary housing market is expected to be the most sensitive to these shifts.
New Construction Code: pressure or protection?
Another major factor is the new Construction Code, signed by the President on January 9, 2026, and set to take effect on July 1.
The code tightens requirements for developers and strengthens regulatory oversight. In the short term, this may:
- increase construction costs,
- force smaller developers out of the market,
- temporarily reduce demand.
In the long term, however, the reform is expected to enhance consumer protection, improve housing quality, and raise safety standards across the sector.
In 2025, Kazakhstan’s housing market clearly outperformed inflation and entered a period of rapid expansion. In 2026, growth is expected to continue, but in a more restrained and regulated environment.
For buyers, this means fewer impulsive deals and higher entry thresholds. For the market as a whole, it marks a transition toward a more mature and structured model of development.
