While pre-holiday sales in December provided a short-term boost, 2025 as a whole proved challenging for Kazakhstan’s domestic trade, particularly in the retail segment. Slower consumer spending weighed on overall turnover, with wholesale trade only partially offsetting the decline, DKNews.kz reports.
This assessment comes from Assan Kurmanbekov, Chief Analyst at the Halyk Finance Analytical Center, who reviewed last year’s performance and outlined expectations for the period ahead.
Retail under pressure, wholesale offers support
By the end of 2025, domestic trade in Kazakhstan grew by 8.9% year-on-year, slightly below the 9.1% recorded in 2024. The slowdown was largely driven by weaker retail trade, which expanded by 7.5%, compared with 9.8% a year earlier.
According to analysts, the main factors behind this deceleration include:
- stagnating household incomes,
- slower growth in consumer lending,
- heightened inflationary pressure.
Wholesale trade, by contrast, showed stronger momentum, growing by 9.5%, up from 8.6% in 2024. This segment benefited from increased oil production and ongoing fiscal stimulus.
December helped, but did not reverse the trend
The year-end shopping season traditionally acts as a key driver of activity. In December, both retail and wholesale sales posted double-digit growth, helping to soften the overall slowdown. However, analysts note that without this seasonal factor, trade dynamics would have appeared considerably weaker.
Overall, current trends align with Halyk Finance’s expectations: modest income growth, reduced demand for credit, and persistent inflation continue to restrain consumer activity.
What sold best
In wholesale trade, growth in 2025 was driven primarily by non-food products, which increased by 12.1%, while food products grew at a more moderate 5.8%.
In nominal terms, wholesale turnover reached KZT 53.5 trillion, up from KZT 47.2 trillion in 2024. Key product categories included investment-related goods such as machinery, equipment, and vehicles, as well as agricultural products and food.
In retail trade, food products (+7.8%) and non-food goods (+7.3%) showed similar growth rates. Notably, the share of food products in retail sales rose to 33.1%, compared with 30.3% in 2024, reflecting a shift toward essential spending.
Regional disparities remain
Trade performance varied significantly across regions. Even among major markets, growth was uneven:
- Almaty: food sales increased by just 2.5%,
- Astana: +18.3%,
- Shymkent: +45.7%.
In several regions, retail trade was effectively stagnant:
- West Kazakhstan region: +0.2%,
- East Kazakhstan region: +0.6%,
- Karaganda region: +1%.
These figures point to persistent regional imbalances in consumer demand and economic development.
Trade’s role in economic growth
Despite the slowdown, trade remained one of the key contributors to economic growth in 2025. Its relatively strong performance helped support GDP growth over the year.
However, analysts expect this contribution to weaken going forward.
Outlook for 2026
Halyk Finance anticipates further deceleration in both retail and wholesale trade in 2026.
Key restraining factors include:
- continued stagnation of household incomes amid slower GDP growth and double-digit inflation,
- tax reform dampening demand from private businesses,
- a diminishing fiscal impulse,
- potential depreciation of the tenge,
- regulatory measures aimed at limiting consumer lending,
- a high policy rate that encourages saving over spending.
Kazakhstan’s trade sector is gradually moving out of a phase of rapid expansion. Consumers are becoming more cautious, businesses more selective, and the economy increasingly sensitive to monetary conditions. In 2026, trade growth is likely to remain moderate, with demand quality playing a greater role than sheer volume.
