The National Bank of Kazakhstan has published the results of its latest macroeconomic survey of the expert community, offering insight into market expectations for the country’s economic outlook over the medium term, DKNews.kz reports.
The survey covers key indicators including Brent crude oil prices, GDP growth, inflation, the base interest rate, exports and imports of goods and services, as well as the exchange rate of the tenge.
It is important to note that the survey does not represent forecasts by the National Bank itself. Instead, it reflects the consolidated views, assessments and expectations of independent market professionals.
Oil prices: expectations revised downward
Experts have slightly lowered their forecast for Brent crude prices in 2026, revising the expected average from USD 63.8 to USD 62.5 per barrel.
Outlooks for subsequent years remain unchanged:
- 2027 – USD 64.1 per barrel
- 2028 – USD 67.5 per barrel
Overall, analysts anticipate a moderate and stable oil price environment, without sharp spikes or dramatic declines in the coming years.
Economic growth: slowing, but becoming more sustainable
According to respondents, Kazakhstan’s economy is expected to move toward a more balanced growth trajectory, gradually approaching its potential level.
GDP growth forecasts were revised as follows:
- 2026 – 4.8% (down from 4.9%)
- 2027 – 4.4% (a notable revision from 5.0%)
- 2028 – 4.2%
Analysts emphasize that this slowdown does not signal economic weakness, but rather a transition from post-recovery momentum to more sustainable and structurally sound growth.
Inflation: pressure remains elevated
Inflation expectations have increased in the near term. For 2026, the forecast was revised upward from 10.0% to 10.8%, indicating continued price pressure in the economy.
However, inflation is expected to gradually ease over time:
- 2027 – 6.9%
- 2028 – 6.5%
This suggests a slow normalization process rather than a rapid return to target levels.
Base rate: easing expected only in the medium term
Market expectations regarding monetary policy remain cautious. The median forecast for the base interest rate indicates that tight conditions will persist for some time.
- End of 2026 – 16.0%
- 2027 – 12.5% (down from 13.0%)
- 2028 – 10.0%
According to experts, a meaningful easing of monetary policy will only become possible once inflationary pressures subside more decisively.
Who participated in the survey
The survey included 13 organizations involved in macroeconomic analysis and forecasting related to Kazakhstan. Participants represented:
- professional financial market players,
- research and analytical institutions,
- international organizations,
- credit rating agencies.
All results are presented as median estimates, reflecting a consensus view across respondents.
Why these expectations matter
Taken together, the survey paints a picture of cautious optimism. Kazakhstan’s economy is expected to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace. Inflation remains elevated in the short term, while monetary policy is likely to stay tight before gradually easing.
For businesses, this implies the need for careful financial planning and risk management. For households, it highlights the importance of prudent borrowing and spending decisions. The coming years will be critical in determining not just the pace, but the quality and resilience of economic growth.
