Kazakhstan’s economy is accelerating, but the IMF says risks are building beneath the surface, DKNews.kz reports.
On January 27, 2026, the International Monetary Fund released its Staff Report following a mission to Kazakhstan held in November 2025. The key message is clear: Kazakhstan’s economy is growing fast, but signs of overheating are becoming increasingly visible.
According to IMF economists, the country is entering a phase where strong growth must be carefully managed to avoid inflationary and fiscal risks.
Why Kazakhstan’s economy is growing so fast
The IMF estimates that economic growth will reach 6.2% in 2025, one of the highest rates in recent years. This momentum is being driven by several factors at once:
- strong and sustained domestic demand
- higher oil production volumes
- robust activity in non-oil sectors
- large-scale infrastructure projects
- expansionary fiscal policy
- rising investment by state-owned enterprises
In simple terms, the economy is being fueled simultaneously by consumption, government spending, oil revenues, and public investment.
Buffers are strong, banks remain resilient
The IMF notes that Kazakhstan currently has substantial fiscal and external buffers, which help protect the economy against external shocks such as commodity price swings or global slowdowns.
The banking sector is also assessed as generally resilient, despite high inflation and rapid credit growth. This provides an important layer of stability as the economy navigates a complex global environment.
Monetary tightening: the IMF approves, but urges patience
The IMF strongly supports the National Bank’s decision to tighten monetary policy. This includes:
- increases in the base interest rate
- measures to absorb excess liquidity from the financial system
According to the IMF, it is too early to loosen policy. The current restrictive stance should remain in place until inflation moves closer to its target range.
To further improve policy effectiveness, the Fund recommends strengthening liquidity management by:
- increasing issuance of short-term National Bank notes
- coordinating these operations with the Ministry of Finance’s issuance of government securities
Fiscal discipline under scrutiny
While growth remains strong, the IMF warns that fiscal policy must become more disciplined. Key recommendations include:
- stronger coordination of macroeconomic policy
- limiting quasi-fiscal operations
- strict adherence to fiscal rules
- reducing reliance on transfers from the National Fund
The message is straightforward: government support has helped drive growth, but overreliance on public spending could worsen inflation and undermine long-term stability.
Structural reforms remain critical
Beyond short-term policy choices, the IMF stresses the importance of accelerating structural reforms. Priority areas include:
- reducing the role of the state in the economy
- expanding the private sector
- developing financial markets
- improving the business climate
- strengthening corporate governance
The IMF also urges continued implementation of recommendations from the 2023 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), aimed at reinforcing financial resilience.
What could go wrong
The IMF outlines several key risks that could challenge Kazakhstan’s outlook:
- slower growth in major trading partners
- rising geopolitical uncertainty
- a potential drop in global oil prices
- further strengthening of inflation expectations
Any combination of these factors could put pressure on growth, public finances, and price stability.
What happens next
While growth is expected to peak in 2025, the IMF forecasts a gradual slowdown to around 3.5% over the medium term. This reflects:
- stabilization of oil production
- cooling domestic demand
- a gradual decline in inflation
Such a slowdown is not seen as a crisis, but rather as a return to a more balanced and sustainable growth path.
The big picture
Kazakhstan is benefiting from strong economic momentum, but the IMF’s assessment serves as a warning signal. Managing today’s growth carefully is essential to avoid tomorrow’s instability. The Fund’s message is consistent: disciplined macroeconomic policy, fiscal restraint, and deeper reforms are now crucial to securing long-term prosperity.
