Global logistics is undergoing a quiet transformation — one that rarely makes headlines, yet is already being felt across the world. Geopolitics, digitalization, and the rapid rise of e-commerce are steadily reshaping the rules of the game. At the center of this shift is air cargo, increasingly emerging as a critical element that determines the speed and resilience of global trade.
In an interview with DKNews.kz, Brendan Sullivan explains why air cargo is becoming a strategic asset and whether Kazakhstan has a real chance to evolve into a fully-fledged Eurasian air cargo hub. Sullivan is the Global Head of Cargo at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), one of the most influential organizations in global aviation, representing leading airlines and shaping industry standards worldwide.
With more than 20 years of experience in aviation logistics, Sullivan is at the forefront of the industry’s key developments — from digital transformation and standard-setting to engagement with governments and international institutions.
- Do you think air cargo is appreciated enough as a strategic asset for the global economy?
Air cargo is often talked about as a support function, but in reality, it is a strategic enabler of the global economy. It carries a relatively small share of global trade by volume (less than 1%), but a very high share by value (33%), and it underpins sectors like pharmaceuticals, electronics, advanced manufacturing, AI-related goods, and e-commerce.
The challenge is that air cargo tends to be noticed more during crises such as pandemics, geopolitical shocks, and supply chain disruptions. The real opportunity is to treat it as critical infrastructure before the next disruption, not after.
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- We often hear that the “global logistics map is being redrawn.” What does that actually look like in practice today?
In practice, it means less reliance on single routes, single suppliers, or single hubs. Companies are diversifying production, spreading risk across regions, and designing supply chains that prioritize resilience over pure cost efficiency.
For air cargo, this translates into more fragmented trade flows, increased importance of secondary hubs, and demand for flexible capacity rather than fixed, linear routes. The map isn’t being replaced - it’s becoming more complex and more dynamic.
- How much is geopolitics already reshaping cargo routes - and are these changes here to stay?
Geopolitics is already reshaping cargo routes in very tangible ways - through airspace restrictions, sanctions, shifting trade alliances, and security considerations.
Some of these changes may ease over time, but the broader trend is that prioritizing resilience is likely permanent. Supply chains are now designed with geopolitics in mind. That means redundancy, optionality, and the ability to reroute quickly are no longer “nice to have” - they are fundamental.
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- Kazakhstan has a strong geographic position on paper. Why isn’t that enough to become a logistics hub?
Geography is a starting point - but it’s not a strategy. Many countries sit at crossroads, but only a few become true hubs.
What really matters is how easy it is to move goods through the system: regulatory predictability, customs efficiency, digital readiness, service reliability, and trust across the supply chain. Kazakhstan is taking meaningful steps in this direction, including the launch of a Single Window system and broader Open Skies measures, but further strategic efforts are still needed.
Without these, geography alone makes you a transit point - not a hub.
- To put it bluntly - is Kazakhstan closer to becoming a real hub today, or still just another stop along the way?
Kazakhstan has made progress. Rising cargo volumes, an expanded international route network, and investments in facilities like the Karaganda multimodal cargo hub all signal momentum.
But the distinction is critical. A real hub adds value - not just volume.
The key question is whether cargo stops in Kazakhstan because it has to, or because it makes sense. Becoming a hub requires deliberate choices - in governance, digital systems, partnerships, and long-term positioning. The direction is promising, but the outcome is not automatic.
A successful cargo hub requires a combination of infrastructure and connectivity - including dedicated cargo terminals, specialized handling facilities, and strong integration with multimodal transport networks.
Trade facilitation and border efficiency are critical to competitiveness. Measures such as pre-arrival processing, paperless trade, and coordinated customs procedures significantly reduce transit times and costs. This is particularly relevant for Central Asia. Estimates suggest that with the right policies and investments, the Middle Corridor could triple freight volumes across transport modes by 2030 to 11 million tons, while cutting transit times in half.
IATA
- What matters more now: physical infrastructure or the speed of digital transformation?
Today, they are inseparable. But if forced to choose, digital speed increasingly determines whether physical infrastructure delivers value at all.
You can build world-class terminals, but if data doesn’t move faster than cargo, the system will underperform. Digital processes are what turn infrastructure from concrete into capability.
Digitalization and data sharing are essential enablers of efficiency and transparency, allowing real-time visibility, better coordination across stakeholders, and improved cargo flow management.
Operational excellence is a key differentiator. It requires standardized handling processes, performance monitoring (including dwell time and reliability), and a skilled, certified workforce aligned with international standards.
Ultimately, cargo hubs compete on speed, predictability, and reliability - not infrastructure alone.
- Why has digitalization in air cargo shifted from being a competitive edge to a basic requirement?
There are three main drivers: scale, complexity, and resilience.
The growth of e-commerce and global trade has pushed shipment volumes beyond what manual processes can handle. Increasing regulatory, safety, and security requirements demand greater accuracy and consistency of data. And in a volatile geopolitical environment, resilience depends on real-time visibility and coordination.
Because these fundamentals have changed, so has the role of digitalization. Customers now expect real-time visibility, predictability, and seamless data exchange as standard.
Digitalization is no longer about differentiation - it is about participation. Without it, players struggle to integrate into modern supply chains, comply with regulations, or scale efficiently.
Baranoz Demir/Getty Images
- Where is AI already making a real impact in air cargo - and where is it still more hype than reality?
AI is already delivering value in demand forecasting, capacity planning, risk detection, document processing, and anomaly identification. These are practical use cases with measurable impact.
Where the hype still exceeds reality is in fully autonomous decision-making across complex, multi-party cargo networks. Data foundations and governance frameworks are still catching up.
AI’s impact will grow - but only where data quality and trust are strong.
- How has e-commerce changed the expectations and demands placed on air cargo?
E-commerce has compressed timelines and raised expectations across the board. Speed, transparency, and reliability are no longer premium services - they are baseline expectations.
This has led to more frequent but smaller shipments, tighter cut-off times, and deeper integration with digital platforms. The focus has shifted from transport alone to end-to-end logistics performance.
- If Kazakhstan misses this window of opportunity, who is best positioned to step in instead?
In logistics, opportunities don’t disappear - they shift.
Regions that combine connectivity, digital maturity, regulatory efficiency, and trusted partnerships will capture the flows. Kazakhstan’s window is open now, driven by Middle Corridor growth and rising Asia-Europe demand. But maintaining that advantage requires continued modernization and strong partnerships.
Otherwise, traffic will move to more seamless alternatives.
Several players across the Middle East, South Asia, and parts of Eastern Europe are already positioning aggressively. The competition is not theoretical - it is happening now.
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Conclusion
Air cargo is no longer just part of logistics - it is the nervous system of the global economy.
Kazakhstan stands at a crossroads. Whether it becomes a true hub or remains a transit point will depend not on geography, but on the decisions being made today.
