The CPC has suspended oil loading operations.
With Brent trading above $90, an export flow worth up to $130 million a day is potentially at risk. For Kazakhstan, the disruption threatens oil logistics, budget revenues and the stability of the tenge, DKNews.kz reports.
Three tankers attacked in three days
On July 17, a drone struck the empty Nordic Zenith tanker as it approached the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal to load Kazakh oil. The crew extinguished the fire, and no injuries were reported.
On July 19, two tankers already loading crude — ASIA and NISSOS IOS — came under attack. ASIA was taking on oil from Tengizchevroil, while NISSOS IOS was loading crude produced by Kashagan and Maten, a company affiliated with KazMunayGas.
The fire aboard ASIA was extinguished. No one was injured, no oil spill occurred, and the SPM-1 and SPM-3 offshore loading facilities sustained no damage.
Oil loading was nevertheless suspended.
“Oil loading operations at the terminal have been suspended until the consequences of the incident are fully assessed.”
Shipments may resume once the vessels and infrastructure have been inspected, according to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy.
Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry described the attacks as a threat to the country’s economic interests.
“We regard such attacks as an unacceptable infringement on the economic interests of the Republic of Kazakhstan.”
Astana demanded an immediate end to attacks on civilian vessels and called for the security of export infrastructure to be guaranteed. The Foreign Ministry also said that a previously agreed mechanism for sharing information about tankers entering the Black Sea to load oil had been ignored.
Why as much as $130 million a day is at stake
The CPC can transport up to 72.5 million tonnes of oil annually from Kazakhstan. Based on the average density of crude, that is equivalent to more than 1.4 million barrels per day.
On July 20, Brent rose above $90, reaching $90.79 per barrel. Prices climbed amid escalating tensions around Iran and reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil trade. Brent gained more than 3% in a single day, according to Reuters.
At that price, the gross market value of crude corresponding to the maximum capacity of the CPC’s Kazakh section approaches $130–132 million a day.
That does not mean the state is losing this amount every day. Some cargoes can be delayed, crude can temporarily remain in storage, and shipments can resume once the terminal returns to operation.
But the calculation shows the scale of the risk. If the suspension continues, storage facilities could fill up and producers may be forced to reduce output.
That would cut revenues flowing into the state budget and the National Fund.
Expensive oil does not always mean more money
The timing of the CPC shutdown is particularly sensitive for Kazakhstan.
The country’s 2026 budget assumes an oil price of $60 per barrel. With Brent above $90, the market price is now more than 50% higher than the budget benchmark.
Kazakhstan expects oil companies to contribute 4.124 trillion tenge to the National Fund in 2026. That forecast was also calculated using a $60 oil price, according to the country’s budget documents.
Every additional dollar in the price of a barrel increases exporters’ foreign-currency revenue and expands the tax base. But that only works if the oil is produced, transported to the terminal and sold to a buyer.
Oil sitting in a pipeline has not yet become money.
What happens to the tenge
Kazakhstan’s official exchange rate for July 20 stands at 469.83 tenge per US dollar, according to the National Bank.
Higher oil prices usually support the tenge. Exporters earn more foreign currency and sell part of it on the domestic market to cover their expenses in Kazakhstan.
A shutdown of the country’s main export route has the opposite effect. The longer crude remains unable to reach the global market, the weaker the inflow of export revenue becomes.
A one-day suspension is unlikely to reverse the exchange rate. Repeated attacks, higher insurance premiums and forced production cuts could, however, alter expectations in the currency market.
For consumers, the effect runs both ways. A stronger tenge helps contain the cost of imported goods, electronics and medicines.
Prolonged disruption to oil exports, meanwhile, reduces government revenue and leaves less room to finance social programmes.
Can Kazakhstan replace the CPC quickly?
No.
Around 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports move through the CPC. The pipeline connects the Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak fields with the marine terminal near Novorossiysk.
Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov outlined the country’s limited options in May:
“There is currently no alternative.”
Kazakhstan has additional routes, including Atyrau–Samara, the Kazakhstan–China pipeline, and shipments from Aktau to Baku and Makhachkala. None of them can quickly absorb 60–70 million tonnes of crude.
The Trans-Caspian route requires tankers, multiple transfers and access to the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline. The route to China has internal bottlenecks that limit available capacity.
Atyrau–Samara also preserves Kazakhstan’s dependence on Russian infrastructure.
The CPC therefore remains the country’s largest and most economically efficient oil export corridor.
What will determine the scale of the risk
The first indicator is when loading resumes. If the terminal returns to operation quickly, the market may treat the shutdown as a short technical delay.
The second is the cost of insuring vessels. Even an undamaged terminal becomes more expensive to use if insurers raise premiums and shipowners demand additional payments for entering a high-risk area.
The third is production at Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak. Any reduction in output would show that the problem has moved beyond maritime logistics and reached the oil fields themselves.
Oil above $90 may look like a major opportunity for Kazakhstan. But a high price means little if the barrel cannot reach the buyer safely.
