Inflation may ease more slowly. Analysts have raised their forecast for Kazakhstan’s 2027 inflation rate from 7.8% to 8.5% and also increased their expectations for the country’s base interest rate, DKNews.kz reports.
The updated estimates were published on August 27 in the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s latest Macroeconomic Survey. The poll included 15 organizations, among them professional market participants, research institutes, international organizations and rating agencies.
The figures are not forecasts made by the National Bank itself. They represent independent assessments and expectations of professional market participants, a distinction that is particularly relevant for international readers assessing Kazakhstan’s monetary-policy outlook.
2027 inflation forecast rises from 7.8% to 8.5%
The most significant change in the August survey concerns 2027.
The median inflation forecast for 2026 remains unchanged at 10%. For 2027, however, analysts raised their estimate from 7.8% to 8.5%, while the 2028 forecast increased from 6.8% to 7%.
That is a 0.7 percentage-point upward revision for 2027 in a single survey round.
The shift suggests that professional forecasters now expect Kazakhstan’s disinflation process to take longer than they did a month earlier.
For businesses and investors, the implication is practical: if inflation remains elevated for longer, the scope for rapid monetary easing becomes narrower.
Kazakhstan’s base rate is still expected at 13% in 2027
Expectations for interest rates have moved in the same direction.
The median forecast for the base rate at the end of 2026 remains at 16%. The 2027 estimate increased from 12.8% to 13%, while the 2028 projection edged down from 10.6% to 10.5%.
The expected path now looks like this:
- 2026 — 16%
- 2027 — 13%
- 2028 — 10.5%
Kazakhstan’s official base rate currently stands at 16.75%, after the National Bank cut it by 25 basis points in July. The regulator said at the time that annual inflation had declined to 10.3% in June, although underlying price pressures and inflation expectations remained elevated. The National Bank’s July base-rate decision is available here.
For companies operating in Kazakhstan, a prolonged period of double-digit policy rates means borrowing and investment financing are likely to remain relatively expensive even as monetary conditions gradually ease.
GDP growth forecasts remain unchanged
The more cautious inflation outlook has not led analysts to downgrade Kazakhstan’s economic growth.
Experts continue to expect real GDP growth of:
- 4.8% in 2026
- 4.6% in 2027
- 4.3% in 2028
These forecasts are unchanged from the previous survey.
For foreign investors, that combination is particularly relevant. Kazakhstan is still expected to post comparatively solid economic growth, while inflation is projected to decline more slowly and borrowing costs remain high.
In other words, the survey points to a scenario of continued growth under relatively tight monetary conditions, rather than a rapid return to cheap money.
Brent forecast cut to $82.7 for 2026
The survey also updated assumptions for oil, one of the most closely watched external variables for Kazakhstan as a major crude exporter.
Experts lowered their average Brent oil price forecast for 2026 from $84.6 to $82.7 per barrel. The 2027 estimate remained at $75, while the forecast for 2028 rose from $71.8 to $73.7 per barrel.
For Kazakhstan, oil prices matter through export revenues, fiscal receipts and the broader balance of payments, making the commodity outlook an important part of any assessment of the tenge and the country’s macroeconomic position.
Analysts now see the tenge at 516.2 per dollar in 2027
The detailed August survey table published by the National Bank also contains forecasts for the national currency.
Respondents expect the average USD/KZT exchange rate at:
- 490.0 in 2026
- 516.2 in 2027
- 562.2 in 2028
In July, the corresponding expectations had been 500.0, 532.1 and 566.6 tenge per US dollar.
These are market participants’ forecasts, not an exchange-rate target set by the National Bank. Kazakhstan operates under a floating exchange-rate regime, so such projections should be read as expectations rather than official guidance.
The next base-rate decision comes on September 4
The revised survey arrives shortly before the National Bank’s next monetary-policy meeting.
When the regulator cut the base rate to 16.75% in July, it stressed that it did not follow a predetermined interest-rate path and that future decisions would depend on incoming inflation data and the balance of risks.
The next scheduled base-rate decision is due on September 4, 2026, at 12:00 Astana time.
The August survey does not predict what the National Bank will decide at that meeting. Its broader signal is clearer: analysts still expect Kazakhstan’s economy to expand at a healthy pace, but they are becoming less confident that inflation will fall as quickly as previously hoped.
We previously examined why Kazakhstan cut its base rate to 16.75% and what the move could mean for borrowing costs, as the country attempts to balance slowing inflation with the need to maintain sufficiently tight monetary conditions.
