The National Bank has summed up the results for December and the whole of 2025. The key takeaway: the tenge ended the year stronger, while trading activity on the currency market increased, DKNews.kz reports.
Here’s what changed - and what to expect next.
The tenge strengthened both in December and over the year
In December, the tenge strengthened by 1.3%, reaching 505.73 per US dollar.
Market activity also picked up:
- average daily trading volume rose from $280 million to $359 million
- total monthly trading volume reached $7.9 billion
For the whole of 2025, the picture looks like this:
- the tenge strengthened by 3.7% - from 525.10 to 505.73 per dollar
- total trading volume reached $63 billion
- year-on-year growth came in at +15%
In short, the market became more active, and the tenge more resilient.
National Fund currency sales were modest and targeted
In December, the National Bank sold $400 million from the National Fund.
The money was directed to:
- transfers to the republican budget
- financing the Taldykorgan–Usharal gas pipeline project
This accounted for just 5% of total trading volume - roughly $18 million per day.
Over the whole of 2025, National Fund sales amounted to $8.2 billion.
More sales are expected in January - but strictly within the plan
For January 2026, the National Bank expects currency sales from the National Fund in the range of: $350–450 million
These are planned operations linked to budget transfers.
What “mirroring” means - and why it matters
Another important tool is “mirroring” operations, which neutralize the impact of National Fund transactions on the market.
In December: 475 billion tenge was sterilized.
Over the year: sales under mirroring totaled $7 billion.
In Q1 2026, the National Bank plans to sell the equivalent of: 1.1 trillion tenge in foreign currency.
Reasons include:
- rising gold prices
- forecast liquidity emissions
- remaining excess liquidity from last year
The Bank stresses that these operations are market-neutral and carried out smoothly, without sharp moves.
No interventions - the market worked on its own
In December, the National Bank: did not conduct any FX interventions.
In other words, the market was not artificially supported - the rate was shaped by supply and demand.
State-owned companies also sold foreign currency
Under the mandatory FX conversion requirement: around $315 million was sold in December.
Pension assets were not converted into dollars
Since the share of foreign assets in the pension fund already exceeds 40%, in December: no FX purchases were made for the portfolio - and none are planned for January either.
What happens next to the exchange rate
The National Bank emphasizes that Kazakhstan continues to operate under a flexible exchange-rate regime.
This means:
- the market determines the rate
- imbalances don’t accumulate
- reserves remain protected
In the near term, the tenge will be influenced by:
- market expectations
- quarterly tax payments
- conditions on global markets
- geopolitical developments
And importantly, the National Bank will keep publishing full, transparent information about its operations.
In simple terms
- the tenge strengthened - that’s a positive signal
- the market is livelier
- no aggressive interventions from the regulator
- National Fund sales are planned and moderate
- reserves remain protected
The exchange rate will continue to “float” - but without sharp, artificial swings.
