The first trading session of the new year brought some pressure to Kazakhstan’s currency. On the KASE exchange, the US dollar closed at 511.37 tenge, reflecting accumulated news risks and turbulence on global markets, DKNews.kz reports.
It’s not a crisis — but it shows investors are nervous.
Oil volatility means volatility for the tenge
Energy markets remain under stress amid shifting global supply chains and growing uncertainty.
Brent crude recovered to $61.45 per barrel, but:
- the rebound looks technical
- volatility remains high
- there’s no clear, steady trend yet
For Kazakhstan, this means:
- less comfort for the currency
- more volatility on the FX market
At the same time, the state budget remains secure — the buffer is still solid.
Inflation is cooling, but December saw a pickup in prices
Annual inflation slowed to 12.3% in December (vs. 12.4% in November). On paper — improvement. In reality — mixed signals.
Monthly inflation rose 0.9%, driven almost entirely by food:
- seasonal demand
- shrinking fruit and vegetable stocks
- higher logistics costs
Non-food inflation eased, services grew moderately without new tariff shocks.
Regional gaps remain:
- higher inflation in northern and central regions
- lower in major cities thanks to competition and stronger logistics
Overall, consumer prices rose 11.4% in 2025 — above target, but the underlying pressure is gradually easing.
Short-term outlook: expected trading ranges
Market expectations for the near term:
- US dollar — 505–515 KZT
- euro — 590–605 KZT
- Russian ruble — 6.28–6.40 KZT
- Chinese yuan — 73–74 KZT
For now, markets remain in “watch and react” mode:
- oil remains the key driver
- global headlines matter
- domestic demand and inflation set the tone
Bottom line
The tenge entered 2026 cautiously:
- oil volatility remains a risk
- inflation is cooling slowly
- currency moves stay within reasonable ranges
No need to panic — but it’s worth staying alert.
