In December, many Kazakh consumers once again noticed that groceries and services became more expensive. But the data shows a more complex picture than it seems at first glance, DKNews.kz reports.
According to the analytical report prepared by economist Assan Kurmanbekov, annual inflation slowed to 12.3%, while monthly price growth, on the contrary, accelerated slightly to 0.9%.
In other words, the economy is cooling unevenly: some categories are still rising fast, while others are losing momentum.
What is becoming more expensive
The main driver is food. In December, food prices jumped by 1.2%, the highest figure in recent months.
Paid services were another surprise, despite tariff freezes:
- October: -0.8%
- November: +0.3%
- December: +0.6%
At the same time, non-food goods slowed to 0.7%, partly thanks to the strengthening of the tenge against the US dollar at the end of the year.
Why inflation is so volatile
Several factors pushed prices upward earlier in the year:
- rises in utility tariffs
- higher fuel prices
- a weaker national currency
- strong government spending
Later, part of the tariffs was rolled back and frozen, which helped inflation cool slightly. Still, risks remain, especially on the food market side.
Year-end results: still double-digit
By the end of 2025:
- headline inflation - 12.3%
- food inflation - 13.5%
- non-food - around 11%
- services are gradually stabilizing
This is the second-highest level after the 2022 spike.
Outlook: decline is possible, but gradual
According to the analytical center, inflation may ease to 10.5-11.5% by the end of the year.
What can help restrain prices:
- more conservative budget spending
- higher taxes cooling consumer demand
- slower consumer lending
- a high base interest rate
But pressure remains from:
- higher VAT
- quasi-fiscal spending
- further weakening of the tenge
- growing tariffs and fuel prices
Kazakhstan is entering a period of careful decisions and "expensive money".
