Global markets are moving into wait-and-see mode as investors brace for two events that could sharply shift sentiment — the US employment report and a potential ruling by the Supreme Court of the United States on tariffs introduced by former president Donald Trump. Depending on the outcomes, market volatility could rise significantly in the coming days, DKNews.kz reports.
According to the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan, investors are increasingly cautious, reducing activity in risk assets and partially reallocating into defensive instruments.
FX market: tenge strengthens as trading activity cools
On Thursday, the USDKZT pair moved lower, with the tenge strengthening to 508.96 per dollar, up by 3.14 tenge on the day. At the same time, trading volumes declined sharply, with turnover falling to $205.6 million, down nearly $175 million.
Support for the national currency likely came from several factors:
- higher global oil prices,
- sizeable foreign-currency sales related to operations of the National Bank of Kazakhstan,
- conversion of export revenues by quasi-sovereign entities,
- continued inflows of non-resident funds into Kazakhstan’s government securities.
Later today, market participants will focus on the release of data for the index of socially significant consumer goods prices, which could influence short-term inflation expectations.
Money market: liquidity surplus persists
Money-market indicators remain close to the lower bound of the policy rate corridor amid a growing liquidity surplus:
- TONIA held at 17.00%,
- SWAP-1D stood at 9.25%.
Demand at the National Bank’s deposit auction eased to KZT 1.6 trillion, but was fully satisfied at an annual rate of 18.0%. The volume of the central bank’s open position increased to KZT 6.9 trillion, pointing to sustained excess liquidity in the system.
Equity market: modest gains, low conviction
The KASE Index added 0.7% on Thursday, closing at 7,219.7 points. However, total turnover in index constituents dropped almost twofold to KZT 619.4 million, reflecting subdued investor interest in the absence of strong market catalysts.
The index was supported mainly by:
- Kaspi shares (+4.1%), driven by attractive valuations and expectations of further business growth;
- Kazatomprom (+2.0%), amid optimism over rising global demand for uranium.
Oil: geopolitics back in the price
Oil prices climbed to around $62 per barrel (+3.4%) as markets once again priced in elevated geopolitical risks affecting key producers and transport routes.
Venezuela remains a major factor underpinning the geopolitical premium. At the same time, the risk of supply disruptions linked to Iran has increased, with protests spreading across the country and large-scale internet shutdowns adding to uncertainty.
Developments in Iraq have also supported oil prices. The cabinet approved plans to nationalize operations at the giant West Qurna-2 oil field in order to mitigate potential disruptions linked to US sanctions on the Russian shareholder Lukoil. While the move is not expected to cause immediate export cuts, the prospect of operational or contractual instability at one of the world’s largest fields has heightened supply concerns.
Risk assets: Wall Street awaits key signals
US equity indices traded in a narrow range, between -0.4% and +0.01%, ahead of the release of the key labor market report and a possible Supreme Court decision on tariffs.
The December US jobs report is due on Friday morning. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect non-farm payrolls to rise by 73,000, while the unemployment rate is forecast to ease to 4.5%.
Another potential catalyst is the Supreme Court’s decision on the legality of Trump-era tariffs, which could have implications for US trade policy and public finances.
Meanwhile, shares of defense companies rallied after Donald Trump said the US defense budget for 2027 should be increased to $1.5 trillion rather than $1 trillion. Stocks of Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and General Dynamics gained between 2.0% and 4.5%, rebounding from earlier declines.
Safe havens: gold back in demand
Demand for selected defensive assets increased amid heightened geopolitical risks:
- gold prices rose to $4,485 per troy ounce (+0.5%),
- the US dollar index strengthened to 98.9 points (+0.3%),
- yields on 10-year US Treasuries climbed to 4.18%, up 5 basis points.
This mixed movement suggests investors are cautiously reassessing expectations around monetary policy, inflation, and geopolitical risks.
What’s next
The coming days could prove decisive for global markets. The US employment report and the Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs may set the tone not only for Wall Street, but also for emerging markets — including currencies, equities, and commodities.
For now, investors remain on the sidelines, waiting for clarity before making their next move.
