Global financial markets started the week amid heightened volatility. Pressure on the US banking sector, rising oil prices and relatively stable dynamics of the Kazakh tenge shaped the key market picture, according to the latest review by the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK), DKNews.kz reports.
US banking sector faces renewed pressure
The US banking sector came under pressure following renewed discussions about introducing an annual cap on credit card interest rates at 10 percent. The proposal, promoted by former US President Donald Trump as a measure to improve access to credit, triggered concerns among investors.
Market participants fear that such a cap could reduce banks’ profitability and lead to tighter lending conditions, ultimately harming consumers rather than helping them. As a result, bank stocks were among the weakest performers:
- Citigroup fell by around 3 percent,
- JPMorgan and Bank of America lost more than 1 percent,
- Capital One dropped nearly 6 percent.
Investor anxiety was further amplified by reports of a possible US Justice Department investigation involving Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Although Trump stated he was not aware of the investigation’s details, the situation fueled renewed “sell America” sentiment and added volatility across equity, currency and commodity markets.
Currency market: tenge holds firm
In Monday’s trading, the USDKZT exchange rate moved within a narrow range and settled at 509.82 tenge per dollar, strengthening by 0.26 tenge. Trading volume increased to $333.2 million, indicating elevated market activity.
According to AFK, demand for foreign currency from economic agents — driven by imports, payments for foreign services and external debt servicing — was fully met through:
- National Bank operations,
- sales of foreign exchange earnings by quasi-public sector entities and exporters.
Macroeconomic data also supported the domestic market: the volume of goods and services sold in 2025 increased by 8.9 percent, with wholesale trade rising by 9.5 percent and retail trade by 7.5 percent.
Money market: excess liquidity persists
Money market yields remain close to the lower bound of the base rate corridor, reflecting an ongoing liquidity surplus in the system:
- TONIA stood at 17.01 percent,
- SWAP-1D at 11.02 percent.
Demand at the National Bank’s deposit auction rebounded to 1.6 trillion tenge and was fully satisfied at an annual rate of 18.0 percent. The volume of the open position rose to 7.2 trillion tenge, representing the National Bank’s liabilities to the market.
Stock market: investors turn cautious
The KASE Index declined by 0.6 percent to 7,257 points. Trading volume dropped 1.7 times to 651.6 million tenge, signaling reduced investor activity and growing caution.
The strongest downward pressure came from:
- Kazatomprom shares (-2.4 percent),
- KEGOC (-0.8 percent), as investors moved to lock in profits. The broader market also experienced a mild correction, indicating a dominance of sellers.
Oil prices supported by geopolitics
Oil futures extended gains for the fourth consecutive trading session, reaching $63.9 per barrel. Prices were supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran.
Donald Trump announced the introduction of a 25 percent tariff on countries doing business with Iran. However, price gains were partially offset by increased availability of sanctioned Venezuelan oil. Analysts note that volumes currently stored offshore and in storage facilities are ready for delivery, and Chevron could quickly ramp up production if needed.
Risk and safe-haven assets
All three major US equity indices, which had declined early in the session, ended Monday with modest gains of 0.2–0.3 percent, supported by buying in technology stocks.
Concerns over the independence of the US monetary system boosted demand for safe-haven assets:
- gold rose to $4,607 per troy ounce (+1.3 percent),
- yields on US 10-year Treasuries increased from 4.18 percent to 4.19 percent,
- the US dollar index fell to 98.9 points (-0.4 percent).
Kazakhstan and global context
Against a backdrop of global market turbulence, Kazakhstan continues to maintain an active economic agenda — from 6.5 percent GDP growth in 2025 to reforms across key sectors and major corporate developments.
According to AFK, global markets are likely to remain sensitive in the near term to geopolitical risks and uncertainty surrounding monetary policy, keeping volatility elevated across asset classes.
