Global aviation is showing steady growth in 2026. According to data released by IATA for February, both passenger and cargo demand are increasing despite geopolitical uncertainty and rising fuel costs, DKNews.kz reports.
While the overall outlook remains positive, early signs of pressure are already emerging beneath the surface.
Passenger Market: Growth Continues, but Unevenly
February once again confirmed the key trend of the year - people continue to fly in large numbers.
Total passenger demand increased by 6.1%, while the load factor reached 81.4%, marking a record level for February. This means aircraft worldwide are operating at near-full capacity.
However, there is an important nuance:
demand is growing faster than capacity.
- International traffic: +5.9%
- Domestic markets: +6.3%
- Capacity growth: around 5–6%
This imbalance is already putting upward pressure on ticket prices.
Moe Zoyari/Bloomberg
“The 6.1% growth in passenger demand in February shows that the underlying demand drivers remain strong and are setting a positive tone for the year. At the same time, uncertainty remains high due to the situation in the Middle East, and it is still difficult to assess its impact on the industry. We are already seeing a sharp rise in fuel prices. Against the backdrop of limited capacity and low margins, this is leading to higher fares. Airlines are also revising their route networks, particularly in markets connected to the Middle East and in regions facing fuel supply risks. As a result, capacity growth is slowing: current plans for March have been revised down to 3.3%, compared to earlier expectations of more than 5%,” said Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Where Growth Is Strongest
Regional performance varies significantly:
- Latin America: +9.2%
- Asia-Pacific: +9.1%
- Europe: +4.9%
- North America: +2.8%
- Middle East: +0.8%
In Asia, demand was supported by seasonal factors linked to Lunar New Year celebrations.
In contrast, growth in the Middle East has slowed noticeably.
Key Drivers: Geopolitics and Fuel Costs
The main uncertainty facing the industry comes from external factors.
Rising fuel prices are forcing airlines to:
- rethink their route networks
- expand capacity more cautiously
- pass higher costs on to passengers
And this trend is only beginning.
Victor Plop's Images
Domestic Markets: China and Brazil Lead
Domestic passenger traffic grew by 6.3%.
The main growth drivers:
- China: +12.5%
- Brazil: +12.6%
Meanwhile, the United States saw a decline of -1.5%, showing that even the largest markets are not immune to fluctuations.
Air Cargo: The Fastest-Growing Segment
Cargo continues to outperform passenger traffic:
- Total demand: +11.2%
- International cargo: +11.6%
- Capacity: +8.5%
“Air cargo demand rose by 11.2% in February. Even accounting for seasonal increases ahead of the Lunar New Year, the trend remains strongly positive. However, the conflict that began toward the end of the month in the Middle East is increasing uncertainty about the outlook for the year. A sharp rise in fuel prices, shortages in certain regions, and major disruptions at key cargo hubs in the Gulf are all putting pressure on the industry. While the air cargo sector has demonstrated resilience to external shocks in the past, a swift resolution of the conflict and stabilization of fuel supply and prices would be in the best interest of the entire industry,” said Willie Walsh.
Leading Regions in Cargo Growth
- Africa: +21.0%
- Middle East: +16.5%
- Asia-Pacific: +13.6%
- Europe: +6.9%
- North America: +9.4%
Latin America recorded the weakest performance at +0.7%.
Trade Lanes Are Strengthening
All major trade routes are showing growth:
- Europe - Asia: +13.1%
- Middle East - Asia: +24.0%
- Africa - Asia: +61.9%
- Asia - North America: +9.1%
This indicates that global trade continues to recover, with aviation playing a key role in enabling that growth.
Alfred Evelina's Images
What This Means for Kazakhstan
For Kazakhstan, these trends are more than just global statistics - they signal opportunity:
- rising passenger flows strengthen transit potential
- cargo growth expands logistics capabilities
- fuel price volatility increases operational risks
As connections between Asia and Europe deepen, Kazakhstan has the potential to reinforce its role as a key transit hub.
February confirms that aviation is firmly in a growth phase.
At the same time, the industry faces:
- geopolitical uncertainty
- rising fuel costs
- constrained capacity
The key takeaway is clear: aviation is climbing again - but doing so in a volatile environment.
