The tenge regained ground.
Kazakhstan’s currency appreciated by 1.3% in July, reaching KZT 473.81 per US dollar. Average daily trading volume on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange rose from USD 369 million to USD 389 million, DKNews.kz reports.
Total monthly turnover reached USD 8.6 billion. The tenge therefore strengthened as market activity increased—not because trading dried up.
National Fund supplied USD 200 million
Foreign currency sales from the National Fund totaled USD 200 million in July, or roughly USD 9 million per day. That accounted for just 2.3% of all FX trading.
The National Bank also purchased USD 500 million from the National Fund to finance budget transfers. It will gradually sell this amount on the domestic market through the end of 2026 under the mirroring mechanism.
National Fund sales in August are expected to range between USD 200 million and USD 300 million.
The mirroring mechanism will add further supply. The National Bank expects to sell foreign currency equivalent to KZT 374 billion—around USD 789 million at the end-July exchange rate.
The tenge strengthened without intervention
The regulator did not step in with emergency currency sales to support the exchange rate.
“The National Bank did not conduct foreign exchange interventions in July.”
This is one of July’s clearest market signals. The dollar retreated to KZT 473.81 under Kazakhstan’s flexible exchange rate regime.
Quasi-government sector entities sold approximately USD 195 million in foreign currency proceeds. However, the mandatory sale requirement was suspended effective 15 July 2026.
That removed one source of regular dollar supply. National Fund operations and the mirroring mechanism may partially offset the gap.
UAPF created counter-demand for dollars
The National Bank purchased USD 375 million to maintain the foreign currency share of UAPF pension assets. These transactions represented about 4.4% of total trading volume.
The purchases increased demand for foreign currency and limited further tenge appreciation. July’s exchange rate therefore reflected the balance between several large flows—not the effect of a single transaction.
In August, the volume of currency supplied to the exchange will become a key driver. Quarterly tax payments, global markets, investor expectations and geopolitical developments will also shape the tenge’s trajectory.
“The National Bank reaffirms its commitment to the flexible exchange rate regime, which prevents the accumulation of imbalances and ensures the preservation of the country's gold and foreign exchange reserves.”
The message to the market is clear: Kazakhstan will not defend a fixed rate. Even with substantial currency sales ahead, the tenge will continue responding to demand from businesses, importers, investors and the UAPF.
