Kazakhstan Has 6.6 Billion Tonnes of Potash Salts but Remains 100% Import-Dependent

Kazakhstan has the reserves, but no production. The country holds more than 6.6 billion tonnes of confirmed potash salt reserves, yet its agricultural sector still meets its entire demand for potash fertilizers through imports, DKNews.kz reports.

This assessment was presented by the Development Bank of Kazakhstan in its review of the chemical fertilizer market. The imbalance is becoming increasingly visible as the use of agrochemicals expands: Kazakhstan plans to raise total mineral fertilizer application to 2.3 million tonnes in 2026.

6.6 billion tonnes of raw materials still do not supply Kazakhstan with its own potash

Kazakhstan’s main potash salt reserves are concentrated in the Satimola, Chelkar and Zhilyanskoye deposits. Their combined confirmed reserves exceed 6.6 billion tonnes.

Yet potash is effectively absent from the country’s current mineral fertilizer production structure.

According to the cited data, 48% of production comes from nitrogen fertilizers and 52% from phosphate fertilizers, while potash fertilizers are not produced domestically.

Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector currently needs around 14,000 tonnes of potash fertilizers per year, and the entire volume is imported.

This creates an unusual industrial imbalance: the country’s resource base is measured in billions of tonnes, while even its relatively small domestic market remains completely dependent on foreign supplies.

Potash demand could rise from 14,000 to 300,000 tonnes

The current size of the market does not fully reflect its long-term potential.

Based on scientific research, Kazakhstan’s demand for potash fertilizers could eventually increase to 300,000 tonnes per year.

The gap is partly explained by the country’s overall level of mineral fertilizer use.

Kazakhstan currently applies an average of 25–35 kg of fertilizer per hectare, compared with a global average of around 150–160 kg per hectare.

That means even a future market of 300,000 tonnes would represent a completely different scale from today’s 14,000 tonnes.

Potash also has practical importance for Kazakhstan’s farming conditions. In an environment marked by aridity and soil salinization, balanced mineral fertilizer use can become one of the factors supporting crop resilience.

First major project targets 1.5 million tonnes a year

Kazakhstan is already trying to close this industrial gap.

A major potash fertilizer project is being developed at the Satimola deposit. The Qazaq Kalium LTD facility is designed to produce 1.5 million tonnes of finished product annually.

Once operational, the project is expected to create more than 1,300 permanent jobs. It is being positioned not only as an import-substitution project, but also as the basis for a new export segment in Kazakhstan’s chemical industry.

The scale becomes clear in direct comparison.

A planned capacity of 1.5 million tonnes is more than 100 times higher than Kazakhstan’s current annual demand of 14,000 tonnes. Even if domestic demand eventually reaches the projected 300,000 tonnes, production capacity would still be roughly five times larger.

That means exports would not simply be an additional opportunity. If the project reaches full capacity, they would become an essential part of its economic model.

Three countries account for more than 70% of global production

Kazakhstan would be entering one of the world’s most concentrated fertilizer markets.

More than 70% of global potash fertilizer production is concentrated in Canada, Russia and Belarus. Global output is estimated at around 74.5 million tonnes, while the market is valued at approximately $65 billion.

The average market price of potassium chloride is estimated at around $411 per tonne.

Global demand exceeds 70 million tonnes annually and is growing by an average of 2.2–2.5% per year. China, India and Brazil are among the largest consumers.

For Kazakhstan, this creates both opportunity and competition. Demand is rising, but any new producer will have to compete with countries that have spent decades developing mining, processing and export logistics.

Potash projects require billions in investment

Such production cannot be launched quickly.

The potash industry requires mines, processing facilities, infrastructure and substantial upfront capital. One of the clearest examples is BHP’s Jansen project in Saskatchewan, Canada.

BHP estimates total investment in the project at around C$14 billion, or approximately US$10.5 billion.

The example highlights the main barrier for new market entrants: owning a large deposit does not automatically turn a country into a producer. Between underground reserves and finished fertilizer lies a costly and lengthy industrial chain.

Kazakhstan has more than tripled fertilizer application

At the same time, the domestic agrochemical market is expanding rapidly.

In 2023, Kazakh farmers applied 679,000 tonnes of mineral fertilizers. The figure rose to 1.3 million tonnes in 2024 and 1.8 million tonnes in 2025.

The target for 2026 is 2.3 million tonnes, equivalent to 73% of scientifically justified agricultural demand.

This means fertilizer use is expected to more than triple within three years compared with the 2023 level.

Growth is also supported by government measures. Farmers can receive compensation covering up to 60% of fertilizer costs, while preferential financing for spring fieldwork and harvesting helps agricultural producers purchase necessary inputs in advance.

In 2025, agricultural financing measures helped create 1,500 new jobs and supported employment for 39,300 people in rural areas.

Kazakhstan could complete the missing link in fertilizer production

Domestic potash production would alter the industrial logic of the entire sector.

Kazakhstan already produces nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers. Potash remains the missing third component.

If the Satimola project reaches its planned capacity, Kazakhstan could replace current imports, meet rising domestic demand and still have substantial volumes available for export.

The industry review estimates that Kazakhstan could enter the global top 10 potash-producing countries at the initial stage of developing domestic production. That outcome will depend on actual commissioning dates and the production capacity ultimately achieved.

We previously reported on the construction of a potassium chloride production complex at the Satimola deposit and other major industrial projects in Kazakhstan.

The key contrast remains striking: Kazakhstan currently imports all 14,000 tonnes of potash fertilizers it consumes each year, while the country’s first major domestic project is designed for 1.5 million tonnes of annual production. If the facility is launched and reaches full capacity, potash could shift from an import-dependent product into a new export segment of Kazakhstan’s chemical industry.