Kazakhstan’s banking risks have declined. S&P Global Ratings improved its assessment of the country’s banking-sector industry risk from “7” to “6”, while revising the economic risk trend from stable to positive, DKNews.kz reports.
The changes announced on September 4, 2026, have already translated into rating actions for Kazakh financial institutions. According to S&P Global Ratings’ latest rating actions, Bank CenterCredit was upgraded to “BB+”, while several other banks and financial companies received more favorable outlooks.
S&P lowers Kazakhstan’s industry risk score from 7 to 6
S&P’s Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment, or BICRA, is used to evaluate the risks facing banking systems around the world.
Its economic and industry risk scores run from 1 to 10, with 1 representing the lowest risk and 10 the highest. S&P uses these assessments as part of the methodology for determining the credit profiles and ratings of financial institutions.
In its July 2026 BICRA update, Kazakhstan was still assessed with an industry risk score of “7”.
The September review lowered the Industry Risk score to “6”. The industry risk trend is now stable.
At the same time, the Economic Risk trend was revised from stable to positive. This signals that S&P sees the potential for risks in the economic environment facing Kazakh banks to decline further.
The distinction matters: the economic risk score itself has not automatically been upgraded. Rather, the trend attached to that risk assessment has turned positive, pointing to the possibility of a future improvement if favorable conditions persist.
Stronger banking supervision became a key factor
S&P links the improvement in Kazakhstan’s banking-sector assessment to the strengthening of financial regulation and supervision over recent years.
Among the measures highlighted are regular reviews of banking-system asset quality, the adoption of the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process, or SREP, and steps to limit excessive risk-taking by banks, particularly in the rapidly expanding retail lending segment.
“Measures implemented by the regulator include regular assessments of banking-system asset quality, the transition to the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) for reviewing and assessing banks’ financial risks, as well as measures aimed at limiting banks’ risk appetite, particularly in the retail segment, which has recently demonstrated rapid growth,” the report said.
The improvement has been gradual rather than sudden.
In December 2024, S&P moved Kazakhstan to BICRA group “7” from group “8”, citing tangible improvements in regulatory oversight and the banking system’s ability to withstand macroeconomic pressures.
The latest move takes the industry risk assessment another step lower, to “6”.
Kazakhstan’s banking supervision stands out in the region
S&P also points to tighter day-to-day supervision of the financial sector.
This includes closer monitoring of banks, tougher scrutiny of capital and liquidity, stress testing and greater transparency in financial reporting.
The supervisory framework has also expanded to cover corporate governance and emerging categories of risk, including cyber resilience and climate-related risks.
According to S&P’s assessment, banking regulation and supervision in Kazakhstan compare favorably with several other markets in the region, including Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The difference was already visible before the September review. S&P’s regional assessments had placed Kazakhstan in a lower-risk BICRA group than several neighboring and comparable banking systems.
Kazakh banks weathered geopolitical and economic pressure
Another factor behind S&P’s assessment is the banking sector’s performance during a period of heightened geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.
“In recent years, the banking sector has demonstrated relative resilience to geopolitical and macroeconomic risks in the region. Overall credit risk in the financial system remains under control,” the report said.
S&P has previously noted that asset-quality indicators and financial performance among Kazakh banks proved stronger than it had initially expected.
Stronger regulatory oversight has also reduced the likelihood of system-wide asset-quality problems and banking failures.
The positive economic risk trend now indicates that pressure on the financial system could ease further if Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic environment stabilizes and banks continue to improve their asset-quality metrics.
Bank CenterCredit upgraded to BB+
The improvement in the system-wide risk assessment has already had a direct effect on individual institutions.
S&P raised Bank CenterCredit’s long-term foreign- and local-currency issuer credit ratings from “BB” to “BB+”, while maintaining a positive outlook.
The bank’s Kazakhstan national-scale rating was upgraded even more sharply, from “kzAA-” to “kzAA+”, according to S&P’s September 4 rating actions.
This makes the latest decision more than an abstract reassessment of Kazakhstan’s banking environment. It has already resulted in a higher international credit rating for one of the country’s major lenders.
Freedom gets positive outlooks and higher national-scale ratings
S&P also revised the outlooks on the long-term ratings of Freedom Holding Corp. and its core operating subsidiaries from stable to positive.
The international long-term ratings of Freedom Finance JSC, Freedom Finance Global PLC, Freedom Finance Europe Ltd. and Freedom Bank Kazakhstan JSC were affirmed at “BB-”, while their outlooks were revised to positive.
At the same time, the Kazakhstan national-scale ratings of Freedom Finance JSC and Freedom Bank Kazakhstan JSC were raised from “kzA-” to “kzA”.
Freedom Holding Corp.’s long-term rating remained at “B-”, with the outlook also revised from stable to positive. These changes are recorded in S&P Global Ratings’ official ratings database.
A positive outlook is not a guaranteed upgrade. It means S&P sees conditions under which the rating could move higher if the company’s financial and risk profile develops as expected.
Halyk Bank and Nurbank also receive positive outlooks
The September review also affected other Kazakh lenders.
The outlook on Halyk Bank’s “BBB-” long-term rating was revised to positive. Halyk is already rated within the investment-grade category, making the potential for further improvement particularly relevant to international investors.
The outlook on Nurbank’s “B” rating was also revised to positive.
In both cases, the current rating itself remains unchanged. The outlook indicates the direction in which S&P could move if the underlying credit conditions continue to strengthen.
What the S&P decision means for bank customers
For ordinary borrowers and depositors, a better BICRA assessment does not mean lending rates will immediately fall or deposit yields will automatically change.
The initial impact is more direct for the banks themselves.
S&P uses a country’s economic and industry risk assessments when establishing the starting point for evaluating a bank’s stand-alone credit profile and issuer credit rating. A lower-risk operating environment can therefore support stronger ratings for individual financial institutions.
Higher ratings may also improve how a bank is viewed by international lenders and investors and can potentially support access to external funding.
That does not mean funding will automatically become cheaper. Borrowing costs depend on market interest rates, investor demand, the bank’s own financial position and a range of other factors.
Kazakhstan gets another rating boost after sovereign upgrade
The banking-sector review came shortly after another major rating development for Kazakhstan.
On August 21, 2026, S&P raised Kazakhstan’s sovereign ratings from “BBB-/A-3” to “BBB/A-2”, with a stable outlook.
Kazakhstan’s National Bank said in its official statement on the sovereign upgrade that the decision reflected the economy’s resilience to external shocks amid global uncertainty and commodity-market volatility.
S&P subsequently upgraded the long-term global-scale ratings of KazMunayGas and Tengizchevroil from “BBB-” to “BBB”, citing improved sovereign conditions and a stronger country risk assessment.
The improvement has now extended to the financial sector: Kazakhstan’s industry risk score has fallen to “6”, the economic risk trend has turned positive, and several financial institutions have either been upgraded or received more favorable outlooks.
We previously examined why S&P revised its outlook on Freedom to positive and what the decision could mean for the group.
