Kazakhstan now has a prediction market.
International Trading System, or ITS, has launched a new type of exchange-traded contract that allows investors to take positions on whether specific future events will occur, DKNews.kz reports.
The first contracts cover Bitcoin, SpaceX, the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s base rate, and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy rate.
Trading began on September 8, 2026, during the ITS Ideas 2026 conference held as part of Astana Finance Days. The product has been launched under the AFSA FinTech Lab, a special regulatory framework for testing new financial instruments.
Contract prices reflect the market’s view of probability
The key difference from conventional trading is what investors are actually pricing.
Instead of taking a position only on whether an asset will rise or fall, participants can trade the probability of a specific outcome.
For example, an investor can take a position on whether the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s base rate will exceed 16.75%, or whether the upper bound of the U.S. federal funds target range will be above a predetermined level.
Each event option has two possible outcomes: the condition is either met or it is not.
Before settlement, the contract trades freely at a price ranging from $0.01 to $0.99, determined by supply and demand.
That price can be interpreted as the market’s collective estimate of the probability of the event. The closer the contract trades to $1, the more likely participants consider the outcome to be.
At expiration, the settlement value is straightforward: $1 if the condition is met and $0 if it is not.
Bitcoin, SpaceX and two interest-rate scenarios lead the launch
ITS has initially introduced four event options.
The first is linked to Bitcoin and asks whether its price will be above a specified reference level.
The second is tied to SpaceX and is based on whether the price of SPCX will exceed a predetermined reference level.
The other two contracts focus on monetary policy in Kazakhstan and the United States.
One asks whether the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s base rate will exceed 16.75%.
The other concerns the U.S. Federal Reserve and asks whether the upper bound of the federal funds target range set by the FOMC will be above 3.75%.
This turns central-bank decisions from factors that merely influence bonds, currencies and equities into tradable events in their own right.
Investors can isolate event-specific risk
Prediction Market contracts give investors a way to separate a particular scenario from the many factors that may affect the value of a portfolio.
Previously, an investor expecting a certain central-bank decision or a move in Bitcoin to a particular level would typically have had to express that view through related assets.
With event options, the position can be built directly around the outcome itself, with the settlement structure known in advance.
ITS CEO Kurmet Orazayev said the launch expands the range of risks and expectations that can be priced on an exchange.
“The launch of Prediction Market is an important stage in the development of ITS’s product range and the region’s financial infrastructure. Financial markets have learned to trade the price of assets. Today we are adding another dimension — the ability to trade the probability of events. Investors receive a simple instrument to express their view of the future, while the market gains a new mechanism for forming a collective assessment of that future. Bitcoin, SpaceX and central-bank decisions are only the beginning. In the future, such contracts may cover a wide range of events and scenarios, from macroeconomic indicators and commodity markets to corporate events,” Orazayev said.
AFSA approved the product under its FinTech Lab regime
The event options are being introduced through AFSA’s FinTech Lab, rather than under the standard market regime.
ITS received permission from the Astana Financial Services Authority to launch event options within the framework.
At the launch, Vladimir Savov, Managing Director of AFSA’s Financial Markets Office, said the regulator had studied how derivatives and prediction markets are treated in other financial centres and jurisdictions.
“We have been working toward this launch for a long time. Together with the ITS team, we studied the experience of other financial centres and looked at how different jurisdictions approach derivatives markets and prediction markets. Now the launch has taken place. Naturally, the ITS team has done an excellent job. We wish them success, while at the same time we always keep in mind how investors should be protected,” Savov said.
Investor protection is particularly relevant for binary event contracts. If the expected outcome does not occur, the contract’s settlement value can fall to zero.
Retail investors access ITS through brokers and banks
ITS operates within the jurisdiction of the Astana International Financial Centre and offers more than 3,200 instruments linked to the U.S. and Kazakhstan markets.
According to the exchange, total trading volume exceeded $14 billion in 2025, around 70 times the 2024 level. The number of investors with access to trading surpassed 1.2 million.
The platform has 23 participating institutions from Kazakhstan, Armenia, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Kyrgyzstan, Oman and South Africa.
Retail and corporate investors do not access ITS directly. Trading is available through financial intermediaries, including brokers and banks accredited or registered within the AIFC.
We previously reported on the expansion of ITS’s product range and changes to the ITS World index. The latest launch moves the platform beyond trading asset prices and into a new category: the exchange-based pricing of future events.
