Kazakhstan’s international reserves continue to grow and have approached the $130 billion mark by early January, according to data published by the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan. The increase has been driven primarily by a rise in gold and foreign currency assets, DKNews.kz reports.
Against this backdrop, financial markets remain relatively stable: the foreign exchange market is broadly balanced, liquidity in the money market remains high, while the stock market has come under moderate pressure amid profit-taking.
Reserves boosted by gold and foreign currency assets
According to the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan, gross international reserves of the National Bank rose by 6.4 percent in December, reaching $65.7 billion.
The main contribution came from gold holdings. The value of the gold portfolio increased to $47.2 billion, up 6.1 percent. At the same time, foreign currency assets grew to $18.5 billion, an increase of 7.3 percent. These include funds held by second-tier banks in accounts and deposits at the National Bank.
When combined with foreign currency assets of the National Fund, estimated at $63.8 billion, Kazakhstan’s total international reserves amounted to $129.6 billion at the beginning of January, rising by around $3.9 billion in just one month.
Foreign exchange market: balance maintained
Analysts at the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan note that the foreign exchange market continues to show a relative balance between supply and demand.
At Wednesday’s trading session, the USDKZT exchange rate rose to 510.40 tenge per dollar, up by 0.69 tenge. Trading volume totaled $282.7 million, lower than the previous session.
Supply of foreign currency, generated through National Bank operations, conversion of export revenues by quasi-public sector entities, and exporters’ sales, remains sufficient to cover current demand from businesses and households, including import payments and servicing of external debt.
Money market: high liquidity keeps rates near the lower bound
In the money market, yields remain near the lower edge of the policy rate corridor, reflecting a high surplus of liquidity in the banking system.
The TONIA rate stands at 17.00 percent, while SWAP-1D is at 10.32 percent. Demand at the National Bank’s deposit auction declined sharply to 525.8 billion tenge, down by nearly one trillion tenge from the previous session, but was fully satisfied at a rate of 18.0 percent per annum.
The National Bank’s open position remains significant, with outstanding obligations to the market holding steady at around 7.6 trillion tenge.
Stock market: index pressured by profit-taking
The stock market index fell by 0.6 percent, closing at 7,237.9 points, according to the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan. The main downward pressure came from Kaspi shares (-2.7 percent) and Air Astana (-0.8 percent), as investors locked in profits.
Support from telecommunications and oil and gas stocks was not enough to offset the broader decline. In the debt market, one notable development is the Ministry of Finance’s plan to conduct government bond auctions totaling around 6.4 trillion tenge in 2026.
Oil prices: geopolitical risks drive volatility
Oil prices rose by 1.6 percent, reaching $66.5 per barrel, as markets priced in a higher risk premium amid escalating tensions and ongoing protests in Iran.
However, prices later fell by more than 3 percent after US President Donald Trump stated that Washington had received assurances Iran does not intend to carry out executions of protesters. Markets interpreted the comments as a signal of possible de-escalation.
Risk and safe-haven assets move in opposite directions
US stock indices declined by 0.1 to 1.0 percent on Wednesday, led by a sell-off in Nvidia and other semiconductor stocks. Nvidia shares dropped more than 1 percent after reports that Chinese authorities ordered customs agencies to block imports of the company’s H200 AI chips. Banking stocks also came under pressure following mixed earnings reports.
At the same time, demand for safe-haven assets remained strong amid heightened geopolitical risks. Gold prices rose to $4,620 per troy ounce, while yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell from 4.17 percent to 4.14 percent. The US dollar index remained broadly unchanged at 99.1 points.
