Kazakhstan’s trade balance surplus has deteriorated sharply, raising new concerns about external stability and pressure on the national currency. According to data from the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan, the trade surplus for January–November 2025 fell by 31%, declining to $13.5 billion from $19.6 billion a year earlier, DKNews.kz reports.
The weakening surplus reflects a combination of lower export revenues and rising imports, a trend that could gradually increase pressure on the tenge if it persists.
Exports decline as imports expand
Over the reporting period, Kazakhstan’s total foreign trade turnover reached $128.8 billion. However, the structure of trade shifted in an unfavorable direction.
- Exports fell to $71.1 billion, down 4.2% year-on-year
- Imports rose to $57.7 billion, up 5.5%
This divergence reduced the inflow of foreign currency into the economy while increasing demand for it, a dynamic that traditionally weakens external balances.
Foreign exchange market remains stable – for now
Despite the deterioration in trade figures, the foreign exchange market has so far remained relatively balanced. For the fourth consecutive trading session, supply and demand for foreign currency were broadly aligned.
On Thursday, the USDKZT exchange rate settled at 511.11 tenge per dollar, weakening by 0.71 tenge on the day. Trading volume declined to $209 million, suggesting cautious market behavior rather than panic.
Analysts note that foreign currency supply generated through National Bank operations, conversion of export revenues by quasi-public entities, and sales by exporters continues to cover current demand from businesses and households, including import payments and external debt servicing.
However, if the trade imbalance continues to widen, this balance may become harder to sustain.
Expectations point to mild currency pressure
According to a February survey conducted among financial market participants, the tenge is expected to weaken moderately in the near term. The USDKZT rate is forecast at around 516.5 tenge per dollar by early February, reflecting cautious sentiment rather than sharp depreciation expectations.
Money market: excess liquidity remains high
Conditions in the money market remain accommodative. Yields are hovering near the lower bound of the policy rate corridor, supported by a significant surplus of liquidity in the banking system.
Key indicators show:
- TONIA at 17.01%
- SWAP-1D at 11.79%
Demand at the National Bank’s deposit auction surged to 1.9 trillion tenge, an increase of 1.4 trillion tenge from the previous session, and was fully satisfied at an annual rate of 18.0%. The National Bank’s open position remains substantial, with outstanding obligations of 7.6 trillion tenge.
Stock market shows resilience
Kazakhstan’s stock market posted a modest gain despite external headwinds. The KASE index rose by 0.4%, closing at 7,266.5 points, supported by a sharp increase in trading activity.
Turnover doubled to 705 million tenge, indicating renewed investor interest in select stocks. The strongest contributors to the index were:
- Kaspi shares, up 2.7%
- Kazatomprom, up 2.0%
Among corporate developments, Air Astana approved the purchase of five Boeing 787-9 aircraft, signaling continued long-term investment plans.
Oil prices add pressure to the external balance
Oil prices declined to $63.8 per barrel, falling 4.2%, as markets reacted to signs of easing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. Additional pressure came from US Energy Information Administration data showing an unexpected increase of 3.4 million barrels in crude inventories, versus expectations of a drawdown.
For Kazakhstan, lower oil prices translate into weaker export revenues, reinforcing the negative impact of declining trade surplus figures.
Global markets regain risk appetite
Globally, risk sentiment improved. Major US equity indices rose by 0.3–0.6%, led by gains in the semiconductor sector following strong quarterly results from TSMC.
Shares of TSMC jumped more than 4%, while Nvidia and AMD gained around 2% each. Banking stocks also performed strongly after upbeat earnings from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
At the same time, demand for safe-haven assets declined:
- Gold prices slipped to $4,614 per ounce
- 10-year US Treasury yields rose to 4.16%
- The US dollar index strengthened slightly to 99.3 points
The 31% drop in Kazakhstan’s trade balance surplus is more than a statistical anomaly. While the currency market remains stable for now, the combination of falling exports, rising imports, and lower oil prices suggests that external pressures on the tenge may increase if current trends persist.
For policymakers and investors alike, the key question is whether export revenues recover in the coming months – or whether Kazakhstan will need to rely more heavily on reserves and monetary tools to maintain stability.
